Big bank bets on economic recovery

When you look at Hungary from a macro standpoint, Hungary is doing OK… Hungary and central and east Europe as a whole are going to outperform the rest of Europe in the next one-and-a-half to two years… there is a lot of infrastructure investments and competitiveness is higher than in western Europe, and this will continue.

General manager Laurent Poiron said after the big French bank BNP Paribas  became  the first foreign lender to sell Forint-nominated bonds.

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  1. Angela Bogaczt

     /  06/12/2013

    Southerner, your analogy is excellent: ‘My point was; from my Western perspective the EU currency creation was the beginning of conflict the likes of which are no different in the intended outcome and objective than in WWI & WWII.’ But I put it to you that an intended outcome in the present time is not as readily obtainable as it was with the WWs.

    Back then, there was no decision available to Hungary that could have been a good one: It could not avoid getting it in the neck from Germany and the USSR, and would have from Rumania, the Czechs and the Yugoslavs if Germany, and later the USSR, had allowed that. Hungary did not have the military power to go its own course. It seems to be able to now, because military force is not in the picture. The current war is economic. Hungary fired a mighty salvo when it turfed out the IMF (despite EU certainty that it should take the additional loan the IMF was pressing on it). It is now able to keep a manageable debt level, slowly and gradually raise its GDP level and economic growth rate. And it can beaver away at acquiring interesting trading partners.

    The Big Boys in the current economic war do not have much fire-power against Hungary. Assault on the forint has been tried, and it failed: the banks lost on it. What other economic gun can be levelled at Hungary to make it toe the line drawn by the Big Boys? My bet, and hope, is that Hungary at last has the power of self-determination it so badly lacked during the WWs.


  2. Southerner

     /  30/11/2013

    I read Michael Burleigh, article ii the Mail Online you reference in your most recent post and mistakenly associated his comments for, PM Cameron’s.
    My point was; from my Western perspective the EU currency creation was the beginning of conflict the likes of which are no different in the intended outcome and objective than in WWI & WWII. That is; Germany in control but not responsible for the economies in the EU. And from that perch, will ally with other historic partners to dominate larger and larger regions. None of this is evil, just good business.
    You can see Germany’s “loyalty” to EU partners who do not submit in Deutsche Bank taking down the Pound a few decades ago after briefly adopting the European Exchange Rate. They were delighted when Mr. Major hitched a ride on the precursor to the euro currency. But Major refused to increase England’s interest rates, because he had promised his electorate he would not do so. I think your Mr. Soros is eternally grateful to the British and especially John Major for that. I am not an economist nor the son of a economist, but I know you do not want to get into a fight with someone a lot bigger hard working and ruthless,
    I also understand that the American Dollar has held those forced to use it as the reserve currency captive to total manipulation of every aspect of their markets. Its not unlike allowing a drunk to manage your financial affairs. All of this breeds deep resentment and instability like we are experiencing today.This is one of the reasons I watch Hungary, your smart people who have few advantages but seem to (not unlike your cat) land on your feet! In the destabilized economic world we may face, being an American is the worst of all options. We think we are entitled to a good life as a birth right, Our world view is pitifully inadequate. Yet the options when you look around the card table are somewhat bleak.
    Hungary having the option to print currency and use inflation of deflation as governors of your own economy is important.I am not sure what if any argument your politicians and your supreme court would be able to make if there were no national currency in the foreign mortgage fight.

    All that to say; it would seem wise to form an alliance of lesser among equal economies in the EU to manage the thrashing levied by the money people. This is not a cry for; workers of the world to unite. No, its is saying that every voice has the same right to self determination. If I am not mistaken, when you were invited to the EU party you were inundated with requirements and funds in the form of grants and long term debt instruments to modernize to EU standards. Further money poured into you economies that made no sense for business development, Those who made poor investment choices have not been required to experience the sting of loss which sharpens future decisions. .

    Back to the poker analogy, In the words of the great balladeer, Kenny Rogers: You’ve got to know when to hold’em know when to fold’em, know when to walk away and know when to RUN!


    • Thanks a lot for your attention to Hungary and for your remarks. I addressed your comment in my new post “Hungary and the Euro”.


  3. Southerner

     /  29/11/2013

    It is remarkable how Hungary has demonstrated, that pursuing a course in its own interest and in contrast to the other EU members has freed it self from servitude to the IMF and EU so far. But make no mistake you are playing poker at a table where the dealer plays by a different set of rules. I admire your ability to maintain your currency outside the EU.But I find it confusing how England who I would have thought was your EU ally is attacking your government and economic model. Notwithstanding to words spoken in the presence of your Prime Minister a moth or so ago.


    • The poker analogy isn’t bad… but fortunately there are other tables with other dealers and this player, who has to play at this particular table by all means, can make use of the fact the dealer must watch out for other dealers.

      I don’t know what you mean by “England … attacking your government and economic model” I wouldn’t call the spat between Cameron and Hungarian EU Commissioner Andor as such. Andor is Socialist, nominated by the previous government.



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