IMF and Hungary’s GDP growth

The Hungarian economy is likely to grow by 2 percent this year thanks to an expansion in investments and domestic consumption, while exports are also expected to expand, the IMF said in its country report on Hungary this year.

The International Monetary Fund admitted in a report after a recent visit by the fund’s experts. (Economists at the global financial consultancy Capital Economics predict 2.5% GDP growth for Hungary this year.)   As you may know, Hungary paid back her IMF-loan last year, ahead of schedule, and asked the IMF  to close its office in Budapest.

But what did IMF say about the Hungarian economy a year ago, in  March, 2013?  Here is an excerpt from their last year report:

(the government) expected real GDP to grow by 0.9 percent in 2013 and 2 percent in 2014, as external conditions improve, the drag from the fiscal stance is lifted, targeted measures increase household disposable income, and the absorption of EU funds is accelerated. The MNB was less upbeat. It expressed serious concerns about the worsened growth outlook. It estimated that potential growth declined to around 0–½ percent in 2012 (in line with staff’s assessment), and expected it to rise to a modest 1 percent in 2013–14.

What did IMF say last October? They expected a 0.2% growth for 2013 (in fact that was well above 1%!) and they “ruled out a two percent growth for 2014″  what the Hungarian government’s  forecast was then.

Now we may establish the fact that the government was right  and the IMF, and its MSZP-affiliated stooge András Simor, the ex-chairman of the Hungarian Central Bank, were wrong.

What does IMF say about the next year this year ?  Oh, the very same as last year:

Hungary’s medium-term growth prospects remain subdued


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