In line with the Reding-strategy, the so-called “left liberal” opposition, together with their influential and rich foreign supporters in the global media, keeps repeating that the expected electoral victory of Fidesz will be “less a reflection of public opinion than the result of new election rules the controversial PM used to gerrymander districts in order to make the vote a slam-dunk for his center-right Fidesz party“. See, for example, also this article.
Some economic analysts, probably with a vested interest in the victory of the postcommunist/left liberal forces which “aim toward market-friendly policies”, such as Mujtaba Rahman, Practice Head & Director, Europe at Eurasia Group also casually drop remarks like “Moreover, Fidesz has gerrymandered several individual districts”.
Hungary’s Constitutional Court found it unconstitutional about ten years ago that sometimes 2.5 times more votes were needed to win an MP seat in some rural districts than in some Budapest ones. (The election districts were drawn in 1989 by the last Communist goverment!). Nothing happened to fix this until Fidesz redrew the election districts in the new election system which decreases the previously insanely high (399) number of MPs, a feature of Hungary’s political system also inherited from the Communist dictatorship, to 199 MPs at last. The reader must also know that Budapest was a surefire election bastion of the “left liberals” until about 2008.
Why didn’t the so-called “progressive forces”, who were in government between 2002 and 2010, try to do anything to comply with the Constitutional Court sentence which called for eliminating this serious democratic deficiency? Knowing the previous undeniable fact, that’s a rhetorical question, of course.
Let’s see a statistical analysis about the electoral districts, “before and after” the change.
The intense orange colour means large over-representation compared to the average, that is 57,000 voters in a district, and the intense blue colour means large under-representation.
The new districts are very obviously much more balanced than the old ones and the statistical analysis, the raw numbers you can find on the referenced page also confirm this.
A sure sign of gerrymandering is the presence of weird shapes.
Show me a single odd-shaped election district like that on Hungary’s new electoral map, please.