The future of the Left in Hungary

Let me make a little poll among my readers what you think is going to happen now after their second huge defeat of the so-called “Left” in the elections.

When you vote, please keep in mind what MSZP party manager Árpád Velez said to their activists in the campaign (on a leaked tape recording): „Making Orbán resign is not a goal, that’s a means. We want to govern so that we could pay our guys at last…”

 

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12 Comments

  1. szebbjovot

     /  08/04/2014

    A bit off topic, but here are some more detailed maps regarding the elections:

    Fidesz

    Postcommies

    Jobbik

    LMP

    More can be found here
    http://www.geoindex.hu/blog/

    Reply
  2. Angela Bogaczy

     /  08/04/2014

    Sorry, this is probably not on-topic. But I’m seriously scared. 1. A very nasty, lies-riddled article from Charles Gati, a mover and shaker of regime-change in Hungary, came in yesterday’s Washington Post. 2. An excellent Hungarian poster, guest-swljslo, in yesterday’s Economist mentioned Gati’s 5-point steps (there is a Hungarian account of them on a wikileaks page, this poster says) for regime change. The remaining one of the 5 is civil war!

    Another thing: the OSCE has put out its ‘Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions’:

    http://www.oscepa.org/publications/all-documents/election-observation/past-election-observation-statements/hungary/statements-12/2153-2014-parliamentary-eng-1/file

    This comment appears in it twice: ‘There were allegations of gerrymandering; it remains to be seen how this translates into results’ (pages 1 and 4). Quite apart from the logical impossibility of allegations translating into results, the OSCE carries on at some length about things quite external to the structure and procedure of the elections. Is this ominous?

    Does either of you have any insight here? (My inclination is to fear external intervention in Hungary, Ukraine-style. I think we waste effort looking at what might happen in parliament.)

    Does either of you have time to add your comments to the Economist and Washington Post articles I’ve mentioned? (My registration in the latter has been zapped, and I cannot re-register. In the former, some of my posts have disappeared, others have come up multiple times, presumably to make me look like a nuisance poster. Both weird.)

    Reply
    • Angela Bogaczy

       /  08/04/2014

      Oh, heck! Now two words in this post are hyperlinked — not by me. The dickens!

      Reply
    • What Gáti said is old news. I wrote about it in the post titled “The Reding-strategy”.
      https://politicsinhungary.wordpress.com/2014/02/08/the-reding-strategy/

      Gáti said that before the big wave of international attack on the Orbán government in 2012 which resulted in the first “Peace March”, several hundreds of thousands of pro-goverment demonstrators marching in the streets of Budapest on a freezing cold January day.

      Reply
      • Angeal Bogaczy

         /  08/04/2014

        I do know that thread of yours, Leto. And I know Gati’s 5 points are old news. But he has surfaced again, in the Washington Post article I mentioned. That, coupled with the utter hopelessness of the Hungarian ‘left’, made me wonder (in trepidation) if the cabal is not bothered with politics, but engaged in some other subversive plan. But I take it that you and szebbjovot are not concerned. And, I must admit, that is reassuring.

        Reply
      • Angela Bogaczy

         /  11/04/2014

        Today’s (11 April) pretty scared second thoughts from me on your ‘old news’ dismissal, Leto. MNO is not inclined to agree:

        http://mno.hu/magyar_nemzet_belfoldi_hirei/bajnaiek-ujra-az-utcara-vonulhatnak-1220827

        The Gati protégé Bajnai is threatening protest turnouts. And the old devil Agnes Heller is promising turmoil:

        http://mno.hu/magyar_nemzet_belfoldi_hirei/heller-agnes-nem-lesz-itt-nyugi-1220614

        The global media won’t be trumpeting these ghouls’ plans for the nation.

        Reply
  3. szebbjovot

     /  07/04/2014

    They have already started fighting each other, the blame game and finger pointing will only get more intense.

    If I am not mistaken, Bajnai will run on his own for the EU elections, Gyurcsány wants to make his own separate caucus, and a Bajnai strategist has been blaming Mesterházy for the defeat…

    There is neither “Unity” nor “change of government” 😀

    I voted for the Polish scenario. In my opinion, LMP will remain LMP ( a fringe party for idealistic pseudo-hippies in Budapest), while the postcommies will most likely not unite again after this defeat, bicker among themselves and become even more unpopular.

    As for the new party scenario, its unlikely to become a serious contender in 4 years unless the leadership is some well known celebrity (like the 5 star movement in Italy)

    That leaves us with only two parties. And in my opinion (not wish), Jobbik will become the main opposition for the 2018 elections.

    There is also a possibility of a split, or at least a row within Fidesz on the issue of the Euro amongst other things.

    Reply
    • You kinda summed up what I think the most likely scenario is.

      Reply
      • szebbjovot

         /  08/04/2014

        In what way does your opinion differ?

        Reply
        • I’m not sure Jobbik will be “the main opposition for the 2018 elections”. If they carry on with the repositioning I wrote about in the other post then they probably will be but there’s a good chance that dissatisfaction among the Jobbik rank and file will prevent Vona from continuing with this. The Magyar Gárda afficionados won’t fancy kitty-stroking. 😀

          Reply
          • szebbjovot

             /  08/04/2014

            Surely that would have a positive effect, with the extreme elements becoming dissatisfied and going to MIÉP or forming their own groups like “Magyar Hajnal” , thus “cleansing” Jobbik of the more extreme elements.

            Reply

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