Economic recovery IS on the way

Quite a few economic indicator figures  have been released this morning.

 

The European Commission has published their economic forecast.  They predict Hungary’s GDP would grow by 2.3% (up from their estimate 2.1% in February), the budget deficit would stay below the Maastricht-criteria three percent limit and Hungary’s yearly inflation rate  would be only 1 percent.

Hungary’s KSH (Hungarian Central Statistical Office) has published data about  foreign trade  and the number new properties built.

  • Exports increased by 7.1%, imports grew by 5.7%  in the first two months of  2014 (year-on-year). The balance of trade surplus was 321 million EURs more and it grew to 1.242 billion EURs. Vow!
  • 51% more properties were built in Hungary in the first three months of 2014 than a year earlier!

Besides the Association of Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory Management (Halpim) has announced that Hungary’s seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)  climbed to 54.6 points in April from 53.7 points in March, indicating further growth.  (50-plus points means growth.)

By the way, last week  Hungary’s National Bank announced that they will  convert their two-week bill facility into a deposit instrument with the same maturity from August.  The facility, the basis of the country’s benchmark interest rate, will no longer be accepted as collateral by the bank and foreign investors will be barred from it.  This is a  very significant measure  indeed to  encourage a further shift towards financing Hungary from domestic, Forint-based sources instead of foreign currency based sources and to reduce the country’s external vulnerability.  As a reminder, Japan’s GDP-to-public debt ration is 220+% and that’s possible only because Japan owes their debt to its own citizens and companies, not to foreign ones.

 

Update on the 6th of May:     KSH has announced retail sales have increased by 8.3% year-on-year in March, after 6.7% y-on-y in February.

 

 

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6 Comments

  1. bob

     /  06/05/2014

    I think ALB can understand and speak Hungarian but not very well. I would be very surprised if he was able to write articles for Magyar Narancs without someone translating for him or correcting his mistakes. Can you give a to something he wrote for Magyar Narancs? all I found were interviews, which of course any normal person wouldn’t give to a disgusting rat-like paper like Magyar Narancs but it’s not the same.

    He has a brother “Benjamin Jason Lebor”, who married a Hungarian woman, and owns part of some companies, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he was still living in Budapest.

    But I agree that Scheppele is more hateful towards Hungarians more dishonest and more willing to twist facts and lie. I dislike LeBor but not as much as some others, inlcuding Scheppele.

    Reply
    • I seem to recall LeBor wrote in Magyar Narancs a long time ago, back in the day when SZDSZ was strong. However I couldn’t find an article written by him when I made a quick search on their site, so I could be wrong.
      I wouldn’t dispute for a moment that LeBor is a real Hungarophile compared to Scheppele.

      Reply
  2. rslives

     /  05/05/2014

    There is a reason why economic news is so often completely distorted from Hungary. The left is only interested in failiure of the whole country, and the western media uses them to “gain information” about Hungary. So their central message of gloom and doom is the one that gets through.

    How can the leftist achieve such control?
    List of leftist and liberal controlled media outlets:

    Weeklys:
    Élet és Irodalom (ÉS)
    Magyar Narancs
    168 óra
    Heti Világgazdaság (HVG) (largest circulation weekly)
    Hetek
    Figyelő
    Vasárnapi hírek
    Dailys:
    Népszabadság
    Népszava
    Blikk (chief editor, the ultra-left Marcell Murányi. This is also the largest circulation newspaper in Hungary)
    Bors
    Vilaggazdasag
    Kisalföld
    Sonline
    TVs completly under leftist control:
    ATV
    RTL Klub (largest TV station in Hungary)
    Story 4
    Viasat3
    Internet portals:
    Origo.hu (largest internet portal)
    index.hu (second largest internet portal)
    napi.hu
    galamus.hu
    hvg.hu
    444.hu
    vs.hu
    hir24.hu
    cink.hu
    atlatszo.hu
    hirstart.hu
    velemenyvezer
    egyenlito
    kettos merce
    and many others…

    We should amend this list and repost every single time when the topic of the “oppressed, miserable” and so on and so forth state of the Left wing media comes up. The truth is they still control more than 50% and have the biggest media companies under their thumb in almost all important sectors.

    Reply
    • Thanks, it’s a good list.

      “the western media uses them to “gain information” about Hungary”

      Well, to gain information they’ve got better sources than these… To spread misinformation, they do use them indeed.
      This is no conspiracy theory at all, one just should have a look what articles global economic newspapers like The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, etc. carry regularly: usually it’s some “standard” whining about Hungary’s growing anti-Semitism, or possibly anti-Roma sentiments, and they almost always have a very hostile tone, most often towards PM Orbán specifically. Regardless if it’s a neolib or neocon paper, one could read the very same stuff in Index.hu, Népszabadság, Népszava, etc., that is in the Hungarian postcommunist media as well.

      Let’s see, for example, some recent articles in the Economist:

      http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21600169-viktor-orban-heads-third-termand-wants-centralise-power-four-more-years

      “Hungary’s divisive prime minister”, “Viktor Orban, the pugnacious prime minister”
      http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/04/economist-explains-0?zid=307&ah=5e80419d1bc9821ebe173f4f0f060a07

      http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21595515-row-about-statue-reignites-controversy-over-nazi-occupation-statue-limitations

      Reply
      • KK

         /  06/05/2014

        Yes the economist articles are a good example. Isn’t it interesting though that once the Postcommies don’t have a controlled forum, where they can delete and ban anyone they wish (university professors, Jewish intellectuals, journalists – I’ve seen Communist Balogh ban them if they dared to have a different opinion than hers), they usually lose in open debate? Such as even in the articles that you linked.

        Another issue is that Adam LeBor who writes some of these articles for the Economist is at least a journalist, so even though he dislikes Hungarians, he at least does not want his own credibility to suffer by making obvious lies. Kim Lane Scheppele on the other hand lies without any hesitation, the bigger the lie the more she will like it.

        Long story short ALB at least has some integrity and respect for the facts, while many others like Scheppele don’t even care about their own credibility and willing to make up any lie they think will hurt Hungary.

        Reply
        • ALB spent long years in Budapest (maybe he still lives here??). He belonged to the “Szadesz”-circles (that is “liberal Jewish intellectuals” of the City… whose ancestors were very often well exposed in the Stalinist dictatorship of the 1950’s), he was writing for Magyar Narancs, etc. I think that fact alone explains his maliciousness towards Hungarian patriotism, nationalism, whatever you call it pretty well.

          Reply

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