“Hungary delivers economic surprise on the positive side” is becoming a unsurprising headline. The Central Statistical Office (KSH) has revealed today that Hungary’s economy grew by 3.5 percents in January-March on a year-to-year basis:
So everybody is very surprised yet again…
… just like everybody was surprised at the -0.1% inflation rate announced a few days ago (0.3% was “the consensus of the market”).
To put this in context, here are the latest data for the CEE countries:
Besides Hungary’s T-bond yields also plummeted today: For example, the average 10-year bond yield dropped by 56 bps to 4.79%, with a big (4.4) bid-to-cover ration, from 5.35% two weeks ago. That’s a new historic low in Hungary! Practically this means the financial market price Hungary’s bonds in the “investment grade” category but the credit rating agencies don’t bother: they keep rating Hungary in the “junk” category.
Update: today’s data is that the construction industry output grew by 34.2% on a yearly basis!