The EP elections have been held and they changed the political landscape in Europe… and, to a smaller degree, in Hungary, too. So let’s study the results from that large sample survey a bit. The EP election was purely list-based, with a five percent threshold, the same rules applied as in other EU countries, so the postcommie left-liberals shouldn’t really whine about unfair election rules, gerrymandering, disproportionality in the election system, what have you. (Well, they do.)
The voter turnout in Hungary was lower than in 2009 but this is not much of a surprise: Hungary had general elections in April. Besides people know it very well in Hungary, too, that Europe’s decision makers are elected in the national elections. The Eurocrats in Brussels should get this message at last! The turnout was still almost 30 percents and that’s quite high compared to 13%, the voter turnout Slovakia, our northern neighbour produced…
First and foremost, let’s note that Fidesz won another landslide victory and the poll result I quoted was about right for Fidesz. Fidesz has increased their support to 51.5% in the EP elections from 46% in the general elections and Fidesz was the only Hungarian party which got a higher share of votes than on the 6th of April. What does this entail for Fidesz and Hungary? It’s certainly a strong reinforcement for PM Orbán in his European policies.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said already before the election, in a last minute interview on Saturday, that “he will not support Jean-Claude Juncker‘s bid to become president of the European Commission even if the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) wins the European elections”. Orbán became the first EPP leader to publicly break ranks on the issue but it has turned out quickly he has the support of British Prime Minister David Cameron. Orbán and Cameron share anti-federalist views concerning the future of EU and Junckers clearly doesn’t. I think this event signals that Orbán is becoming a significant player in the European political arena. BTW, let’s also remember what Statfor CEO George Friedman wrote about Orbán’s balancing act.
The far-right party Jobbik came second. (Let’s remember that Marine Le Pen’s National Front won in France!) However they actually lost voter support: they got only 15% after 20% of the votes in the national elections.
No doubt the biggest impact of the election is on the postcommunist side. MSZP came only third, they gained only two seats and they actually came in the fourth place in Budapest (which is the most a leftist/left-liberal place in Hungary)! DK, ex-Socialist PM Gyurcsány’s extremist left-lib party, and Együtt-PM, ex-Socialist PM Bajnai’s left-lib party almost got as many as votes as MSZP. Gyurcsány is making a comeback on the left-lib dunghill… This really seems to be a death blow to MSZP, chairman Mesterházy (and then the whole leadership!) unexpectedly resigned a few days after the EP election.
Bajnai was invited to the Bilderberg-table in Denmark yesterday but the awkward political jester, Gyurcsány seems to be swooping down on dying MSZP. We’re going to see much blood on the left-lib political stage in the upcoming months. The local elections will be held in October.