Goldilocks economy in an Orbán-era?

A Goldilocks economy is

An economy that is not so hot that it causes inflation, and not so cold that it causes a recession. There are no exact markers of a Goldilocks economy, but it is characterized by a low unemployment rate, increasing asset prices (stocks, real estate, etc.), low interest rates, brisk but steady GDP growth and low inflation.

Regulators use fiscal and monetary policy tools to try to create an economy with these conditions. Economic conditions abroad, and regulators’ reactions to them, also influence whether an economy can achieve a Goldilocks state. This state is ideal for investing, because as companies grow, stocks perform well, and in the absence of inflation, bonds will hold their value. If GDP grows too quickly and inflation creeps up too quickly, however, the economy can overheat and a bust can result.

The phrase comes from the fairy tale “The Story of the Three Bears“.  Similarly to the UK, Hungary may enjoy a Goldilocks economy now… and that may mean a Orbán-era ahead… with a lot of postcommie/leflib  whining about “checks and balances” for years to come.  I’m looking forward to that.  🙂

The Central Bank of Hungary has published their latest forecast today.  CBH expects 0.0% inflation for 2014  (as compared to their 1.3 percent forecast in March) and they increased their GDP growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.1% .  The public budget deficit is expected to stay below the 3% Maastricht requirement.   They also predict rising employment, decreasing unemployment and a steady real household income increase.

NBH forecasts

According to the latest poll by Tárki published yesterday,  political support haven’t changed much for any of the parties since the EP elections:  Fidesz-KDNP is backed by 56% of the decided voters (up from 54%), MSZP has 16% (down from 17%), Jobbik stands at 15% (down from 17%).

 

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