After the EP elections

The EP elections have been held and they changed the political landscape in Europe… and, to a smaller degree, in Hungary, too. So let’s study the results from that large  sample survey  a bit.   The EP election was purely list-based, with a five percent threshold,  the same rules applied as in other EU countries, so the postcommie left-liberals shouldn’t  really whine about unfair election rules, gerrymandering, disproportionality in the election system, what have you.  (Well, they do.)

The voter turnout in Hungary was lower than in 2009 but this is not much of a surprise:  Hungary had general elections in April.  Besides people know it very well in Hungary, too, that Europe’s decision makers are elected in the national elections.  The Eurocrats in Brussels should get this message at last!  The turnout was still almost 30 percents and that’s quite high compared to 13%, the voter turnout Slovakia, our northern neighbour produced…

First and foremost, let’s note that Fidesz won another landslide victory and the poll result I quoted  was about right for Fidesz.   Fidesz has increased their support to 51.5% in the EP elections from 46% in the general elections and Fidesz was the only Hungarian party which got a higher share of votes than on the 6th of April.  What does this entail for Fidesz and Hungary?  It’s certainly a strong reinforcement for PM Orbán in his European policies.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said already before the election,  in a last minute interview on Saturday, that  “he will not support Jean-Claude Juncker‘s bid to become president of the European Commission even if the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) wins the European elections”.   Orbán became the first EPP leader to publicly break ranks on the issue but it has turned out quickly  he has the support of British Prime Minister David Cameron.  Orbán and Cameron share anti-federalist views concerning the future of EU and Junckers clearly doesn’t.     I think this event signals that Orbán  is becoming a significant player in the European political arena. BTW, let’s also remember what Statfor CEO George Friedman wrote about  Orbán’s balancing act.

 

The distribution of the cast votes

The far-right party Jobbik came second. (Let’s remember that Marine Le Pen’s National Front won in France!)  However they actually lost voter support:  they got only 15% after  20% of the votes in the national elections.

No doubt the biggest impact of the election is on the postcommunist side.  MSZP came only third, they gained only two seats and they actually came in the fourth place in Budapest (which is the most a leftist/left-liberal place in Hungary)!  DK, ex-Socialist PM Gyurcsány’s extremist left-lib party, and Együtt-PM, ex-Socialist PM Bajnai’s left-lib party almost got as many as votes as MSZP.  Gyurcsány is making a comeback on the left-lib dunghill…  This really seems to be a death blow to MSZP, chairman Mesterházy (and then the whole leadership!) unexpectedly resigned a few days after the EP election.

Bajnai was invited to the Bilderberg-table in Denmark yesterday but the awkward political jester,  Gyurcsány seems to be swooping down on dying MSZP.  We’re going to see much blood on the left-lib political stage in the upcoming months.  The local elections will be held in October.

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New Fidesz supermajority is official

After a lot of re-counting and legal appeals by the postcommunist “Government Changers” (Kormányváltók) coalition, Hungary’s High Court (Kúria) has announced their sentence today: the distribution of MPs seats wouldn’t change.   Another Fidesz supermajority after four years in government sounds like a real political miracle.

I do worry about Fidesz though. As the saying goes, “Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely”.  All in all, I think Fidesz got away with relatively little corruption  in the last four years, given the power the Hungarian voters gave to Fidesz and PM Orbán in 2010.  I hope very much I could write the same in 2018…

 

The seats in the new Parliament

 

The “Government Changers”, in close cooperation with the global neoliberal media,  have been, and are, trying hard to question the legitimacy of the elections results. Well, that’s one could expect from the  Reding-strategy after all.   One of their major “argument” is that Fidesz got a 67% majority with “only” 45% of the votes and that’s sooooo unjust and it’s soooo dictatorial. They don’t have any answer to the fact, other than ignoring, that Fidesz would have won 95% of the seats under the election rules of the United Kingdom.   They keep whining about “gerrymandering by Fidesz”, “the lack of freedom of speech”, “an electoral system which makes Fidesz impossible to defeat”, etc.   Apparently MSZP chairman Attila Mesterházy didn’t think last December that the very same election rules would prevent them from obtaining a supermajority.    EU propaganda, or US mouthpieces like the Wall Street Journal,  focuses  on Jobbik, which got more votes than in 2010 but a smaller percentage of seats!,  instead of that why Fidesz had another landslide victory or  why their postcommie/left-liberal cronies suffered such a huge defeat again from the Hungarian voters…

Instead of trying to learn from the lessons the Hungarian electorate gave them, the postcommies  have been  playing the “anti-Semitic card” for months and they have been trying very hard, with a lot of help from the aforementioned global media,  to stir up more and more hysteria about a planned monument which will be dedicated to all victims of Hungary’s military occupation by Nazi Germany in 1944.   Maybe I’ll write a separate post about this.  In the meantime I highly recommend reading this (very instructive!) article how a descendant of Holocaust victims,  the leader of the leftist-green party LMP,  was be labelled  and attacked when he had opined in the same way as I wrote in the previous sentence.

And these “progressive, democratic forces who represent European values”, together with their foreign overlords in the EU and in the USA,  are apparently unwilling to face up reality: Hungary has had enough of “Kormányváltók”, that is the wreckage coalition of MSZP, its splinters like the small parties established by former Socialist prime ministers and the leftovers of the now defunct extremist “liberal” party SZDSZ.

 

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The future of the Left in Hungary

Let me make a little poll among my readers what you think is going to happen now after their second huge defeat of the so-called “Left” in the elections.

When you vote, please keep in mind what MSZP party manager Árpád Velez said to their activists in the campaign (on a leaked tape recording): „Making Orbán resign is not a goal, that’s a means. We want to govern so that we could pay our guys at last…”

 

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Who said what about today’s landslide Fidesz victory

The results of the elections are in a nutshell:

  1. It’s a huge, huge centre-of-right  victory! After four years in government,  FideszKDNP  seems to have been able to retain even the supermajority!  This still hangs in the balance though because of two constituencies where the votes are very close to each other.
  2. The postcommunist left-liberal “Change of Government” coalition (MSZP, Együtt, PM, DK,  Liberals) came in second and they managed to win in ten individual constituencies. Apart from a single election district in the city of Szeged, all of these are on the Pest side of Budapest.
  3. Radical right-wing Jobbik came in third and relatively close to the postcommunist alliance. Undoubtedly Jobbik forms a third political centre now.
  4. Green-liberal LMP managed to sneak into the Parliament with a 5.2 percent result.

 

MP seats in the new Parliament based on 93.53 percents of the votes

 

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, seemingly quite moved,  thanked everybody who voted and especially those voters who supported his party.  He said that they worked hard for this result and God  will decide if they are worthy of it.  He emphasized that today Hungarians are the most united nation in Europe.  Referring to the postcommunist opposition, he said that Hungary rejected hatred and, hinting at Jobbik’s rhetoric, he said Hungary also rejected leaving the European Union.

MSZP chairman Mesterházy refused to congratulate PM Orbán to his victory because “the electoral system was flawed and strongly biased” and he was talking about “Fidesz-dictatorship”, an “illegitimate regime”, etc.  Let’s note that he said they’d get a supermajority, under the very same rules and these circumstances, a few months ago…

Ex MSZP PM Ferenc Gyurcsány, the leader of the extremist left-liberal party “Democratic Coalition“, said “Hungarian voters were plain wrong” and he pledged they’d get into power sooner than 2018.  He offered no congratulation to PM Orbán, “of course”.

Ex-MSZP PM Gordon Bajnai , the leader of Együtt-PM, was also whining about the electoral system.  He also refused to  congratulate PM Orbán.

Jobbik chairman Gábor Vona congratulated PM Orbán and pledged they’d win the next elections.

LMP chairman András Schiffer congratulated both PM Orbán  and  MSZP chairman Attila Mesterházy and he offered him co-operation in opposition.

 

I say those losers who were unable to offer the basic courtesy of congratulating the re-elected prime minister are very obviously (pathetic)  losers in the other sense of the word, too.

 

 

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The Reding strategy

MSZP chairman Attila Mesterházy paid a visit to the USA last week. He held a non-public talk in the Center for Strategic and International Studies  (a think-tank of the Democrat Party) and, according to Magyar Nemzet, he stated that he didn’t think the presence of international observers on the upcoming elections would be useful and he personally would not want call for it. He said he thinks the international observers wouldn’t give a real guarantee (for Hungary’s holding free and fair elections) but they would legitimize the election results. He added  this is not an official viewpoint of their “Összefogás” coalition now and ex-Socialist Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai disagrees.

Mesterházy in Washington

Charles Gati, an American professor of Hungarian descent, who belongs to the circles of Hillary Clinton, an ex-councillor to the Department of Foreign Affairs,  also sat among the audience of Mesterházy’s talk.  Gati said earlier that  “there are methods for getting rid of the Orbán government  – in a democratic way if possible and in another way if that’s not possible ” . Later he elaborated that, besides the IMF-weapon,  civil war is also an option. (See, for example, the same article)    Does “Ukraine”, with its shale gas luring western companies, ring a bell?

According to an unnamed Italian EU official, EU Commissioner Viviane Reding said  in the secretive Bilderberg-meeting last June that she would do everything to question the legitimacy of the 2014 elections in Hungary and she had held meetings about this with representatives of Hungarian organizations which receive most of their financial resources from the USA.

Mesterházy’s talk in the Center for Strategic and International Studies is the umpteenth sign of  the Reding strategy  being realized.

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The modern democracy dilemma

Hungary is going to expand its nuclear power station in Paks which was built by the Soviet Union in the 1970’s.  These nuclear power blocks will have to be decommissioned at around 2030 and the new ones are going to be built by the Russian company Rosatom.   Russia will provide a 10 billion Euro loan for 30 years to finance the construction and 40 percents of this amount will be awarded to Hungarian companies as suppliers.  (At a first sight that sounds really good to me.)  The postcommunist (“socialist/leftliberal”) opposition is using this opportunity to accuse the government and Prime Minister of “selling out the country to the Russians”, “betraying our Transatlantic interests” and they generally question the need for the new power blocks, etc.   At the same time they keep a low profile  about that the MSZPSZDSZ majority parliament voted for the expansion in 2009.  According to a Wikileaks document,   Attila Mesterházy, who is the chairman of MSZP now, told the Americans that “the tender offer (for the expansion) would be announced soon and  that, while a Russian firm would probably have an advantage based on the fact that the existing Paks reactors use Russian  technology, he hoped potential US suppliers would be given due consideration”)

There is a lot of noise about this decision and everybody (and his dog) speaks and writes about it.  Most of the “arguments” are purely and openly political.  However there are some which are disguised as professional counter-arguments. (Leftist) environmentalists say, for example, that the increased requirement for cooling water will force Hungary to build water dams on the Danube, etc. (What a nonsense!)

However in fact I don’t  mean this post to be about lambasting the deep  hypocrisy of the post-communist opposition again or to argue for the necessity of the power station expansion or why the Russians should do that indeed.  Incidentally most Hungarians support the Paks upgrade by Russia.

The point I want to make here is the apparently universal feature of modern democracies when a particular issue,  which maybe only one person in each ten thousands or so could have a competent opinion about, will become the object of heated political discourse.  And, following from this,  the political discourse has the least to do with the technical or economical details and things like anti-Semitism (in Hungary and Russia), LGBT rights (in Russia and Hungary), what-have-you will be brought up.  And the existence of vested interests  lurking behind the scenes will swept carefully under the carpet. (The US nuclear power station flagship company Westinghouse  won’t have a piece of the Hungarian nuclear power cake: read that Huffington Post article I linked to below keeping this in mind!)

As opposed to earlier times, people in our modern times get practically all their information from others, opinion makers and practically nothing from their own experience. Opinions are practically never  formed through the process of critical comparison of conflicting arguments, the masses simply get ready-made opinions, like their ready-made food from the supermarket,  and then they’ll decide in the general elections on the fate of themselves and others based on these ready-made opinions.   No doubt this mechanism seems to be the worst in the US among democracies,  the country which loves  so much to lecture other countries on democracy :

We understand the concerns about the state of democracy in Hungary that have been raised by people both inside and outside of this country. Some of these concerns are very serious. They need to be resolved democratically, by Hungarians, and this country’s democratic institutions, its checks and balances and rule of law, need to be strong enough to support that process.

The USA is the country among modern democracies  where there seems to be the sharpest divide by far between the (at most five percent) opinion -making elite and the undereducated, opinion-fed masses.  This opinion-feeding is not restricted to the media in our time though (BTW, the Latin word ‘media’ means “transmission, mediation”).  It’s a common thing, too, when it comes to history, social sciences, too.  Sadly I must say that it happens even in natural sciences to some extent.  No doubt natural sciences are the least infected with this opinion-feeding plague though.

Maybe a certain cultural-intelligence test to exclude the illiterate, the ones who are incapable of any independent thought,  from voting might help modern democracies.  In earlier times tying voting rights to having some minimal income or possessions (“cenzus”)  did act as a kind of cure for democracies then.  Of course this is almost like  comparing apples and oranges:  there was no TV, no radio, no Internet, there were only printed newspapers in those times.


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The rope of tolerance

Twelve years ago, in 2002, a Fidesz politician (currently the Speaker of the Hungarian Parliament, László Kövér) held an election forum in some remote, small rural Hungarian town, two months before the election day. As he was speaking, he used a probably too colourful metaphor to express himself: “.. let’s accept for a moment that’s all we are capable of. That we have become an untalented people. Then all I can say, my ladies and gentlemen, it’s not worth living like this. If we do think this way then let’s go to the cellar, let’s find a nice strong manilla rope, a relatively strong timber and a nail and then let’s hang ourselves… However I do ask those who want to make you believe this [that is that you are useless] for years should set an example themselves first… and when they’d be done then we could reconsider if we could do better without them…” For example, here you can also listen to the speech (in Hungarian) So obviously this was meant to be a motivational speech and not as inciting hatred.

The so-called left-wing (MSZP-SZDSZ) created a strong hysteria campaign with the message: “Kövér wants to hang people!”.  László Kovács, the president of MSZP in 2002 (later foreign minister)  and his comrades demonstrated with ropes around their neck, their media juggernaut, intact at the time, was creating a huge whoop-de-doo about that Fidesz would want to hang the “progressive ones”.   MSZP ran TV ads where a small, innocent girl read news about that Fidesz was planning to hang people and  they punched the viewers in the face with “Don’t let it happen!”…  In fact  left wingers still make references to “Kövér’s rope”, using it  as a well-established call, to imply how brutal, “un-European”, uncivil, barbarian, what-have-you the centre-of-right (Fidesz) really is… At the same time they call themselves  “democratic” almost in each sentence they utter, they preach “tolerance” and “European values” around the clock.  Being unable to say substantial things to people, their main political theme is mostly  that they condemn “hate speech, intolerance, extremism, Fascist violence”, what have you…

MSZP held a party congress yesterday  in the capital of Hungary, Budapest (with the participation of ex-Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány who later admitted it was his idea to distort Kövér’s words and to build a hysteria campaign on them).   MSZP president Attila Mesterházy was attacking Fidesz and Prime Minister Orbán in a Fidel Castro-style one and a half hour speech.  When he was saying “Orbán and his friends got so rich in three years, that’s a serious (economic) achievement.  If we are naive and believe this then they should be given a university chair (“katedra”, that is a teaching position) on the University of Economics.”,  someone from the audience cried out loudly: “Kötelet!”  (A hanging rope instead!)

http://video.mno.hu/embed/91092

In the limelight, right on the tribune, Mesterházy reacted to the heckler this way:  “I think there won’t be a “katedra”  then,  only that other thing someone has just shouted”

The spokeswoman of MSZP declined to comment on the matter today.  Mesterházy himself has posted only this on his Facebook page so far:  “it’s been a great party congress!”

The so-called Hungarian left-wing deserves this award very much indeed:

My award to MSZP

Update: MSZP has just issued a statement and they say the heckler shouted “börtönt!” in fact (“prison (sentence)!”). That’s very, very obviously a lie because the shouting is clear and the two words (“kötelet” and “börtönt”) don’t even sound similarly.

Update2 (Mon Jan 27 18:00) :  So far the nobody from the so-called “democratic opposition” (that is those leftists/liberals who ruined Hungary between 2002 and 2010) has been willing to comment on the scandal.   The leftliberal media stays low, too. There have been two notable exceptions: a certain Tímea Szabó (an ex-LMP MP who switched over to Bajnai’s party) swears she heard “börtönt!” and “the Fidesz media lies”.   On the other hand the ex-spokesman of MSZP, Zsolt Török, who had to resign two months ago because of his role in a failed black-smearing campaign (involving a fake video they commissioned)   accused Hír TV of faking the video…
It’s hilarious. 😀

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The roaring mouse

daStandard.at: What election result do you expect for MSZP next year?
Mesterházy: We’re going to win the elections.
daStandard.at: Percentage-wise?
Mesterházy: That’s difficult to tell but I wouldn’t rule out we would win a two-third majority.

MSZP president Mesterházy said in an interview he gave to the Austrian liberal newspaper Der Standard.

As a reality check, the left-wing pollster, often linked to MSZP,  Szonda Ipsos measured these voter preferences last time:

Party preferences among decided voters who promise to vote

Party preferences among decided voters who promise to vote

Well, that shows that if anybody then it’s Fidesz which might have a chance for another two-third supermajority. I agree that’s quite unlikely though.

  • Ambition (politicsinhungary.wordpress.com)
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