Orbán’s response to the EU

As most of my readers will know, the hysteria about George Soros CEU university is still going on and PM Orbán visited Brussels this week twice.  Please listen to his Wednesday speech in the European Parliament here:

Unfortunately I don’t know about an English language video for  the press conference which Orbán gave in Brussels later on Wednesday.  I’d say that was pretty good indeed. 🙂
After EC president Jean-Claude Juncker had official talks (!) with George Soros in the building of the European Commission on Thursday, obviously to pull strings against Hungary, PM  Orbán attended the meeting  of the European People’s Party, which his Fidesz party is a member of, and the EU summit on Brexit on Saturday.  There wasn’t really much new compared to what you may gleam from the above video.
By “popular demand” (from my Twitter followers), I’ll translate the official press release which summarized his stance at the end of the day. I haven’t seen an English version yet.
Hungary’s prime minister has stated on the executive meeting of the European People’s Party that Hungary’s government is open to cooperation with the European Commission in every unresolved legal issues.
As  we did in the past, we intend to settle the infringement procedures against Hungary via agreements. Hungary’s prime minister has clarified again that the Hungarian government is not adamant about closing George Soros’ Central University in Budapest. However no university may enjoy privileges. Hungarian laws apply to everybody. Higher education institutions, which don’t provide actual education and operate as off-shore mailboxes,  will not be allowed by the Hungarian laws in the future either.
Hungary’s prime minister has clarified that the National Consultation launched by the government is not against Europe. On the contrary, its purpose is to reform the European Union which malfunctions in many respects at the moment and it needs renewal.
The prime minister asked help from the European People’s Party so that the energy union proposal of  the European Commission, which would substantially increase the energy bills of the Hungarian families, should be withdrawn.
Concerning the issue of migration,  he stressed that Hungary is unable to accept the illegal migrants’ unchecked immigration  and the Hungarian government is going to keep the border fence, which defends Hungary and Europe, under any circumstances.
Bertalan Havasi
Manager for the Prime Minister’s Press Office

Hope this helps to clarify the situation.  The global mainstream media is busy posting fake news like “Hungary’s Orbán accepts EU demands”….

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Hungary to build second line of border defence

Prime minister Viktor Orbán said in this regular radio interview  today that  Hungary is going to build a new, “massive, serious defense system” on its Southern borders to defend against a possible surge in the number of migrants.  “The fortified barrier will be able to stop several hundreds of thousands of people if, for example, Turkey allows the millions of migrants to leave for Western Europe.”

He suggested that Austria should help defending the Serbian-Hungarian border, or preferably the Macedonian-Greek border, together with the other Central European countries, instead of  focussing on the Austrian-Hungarian border.

The Hungarian government announced last week that they will employ 3000 more policemen to defend the border. The recruitment will start in September and, after their fast track training, they will be deployed already next spring.

refugee19_3440612k
After the morning interview, PM Orbán left for Warsaw where he and other V4 leaders will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The prime minister said that “people  who claim there’s no connection between the migration and terrorism either haven’t the foggiest or they try to conceals clear-cut facts for some reason.  Terrorism has increased in Europe because hundreds of thousands uncontrolled migrants appeared places where the Western world is regarded enemy. There’s a semi-war situation in Europe and you cannot risk people’s safety under such circumstances”.

Mr. Orbán also said that the European leaders should reject the forced migrant quota idea of the Brussels bureaucrats. The V4 leaders want change and the question is if Angela Merkel would be a partner to V4 this afternoon.  He said that the result of the meeting hangs in the balance.  There are several issues where the viewpoints are not known. “I myself haven’t unfolded all my cards either”.

“The October 2 referendum will mean that a European nation won’t accept the decision of the Brussels bureaucrats. So that will not result in a negotiating position.  That will result in a final, solid Hungarian stance. This may rally many other countries to Hungary’s side as well”, he added.

 

Hungary’s economic boom vs credit rating agencies and the Economist

Hungary’s central bank has published the latest trade balance figures today. The trade balance surplus was  984 million Euros in the first quarter of 2014 and that’s more than double what it was a year earlier (463 millions).  There is a very significant increase compared to the last quarter of 2013, too (710 million Euros).

Hungary’s GDP growth was a “big surprise on the upside” again in the first quarter of 2014:  3.5%.  Foreign investments increased, too.  The inflation is zero so the central bank could safely cut   Hungary’s base rate to a new low of 2.3% today.

 

The CDS is the price of insurance against a particular country’s defaulting and it measures the risk of investors.  The higher it is, the higher the default risk is.  Let’s have a look at the CDS pricing of Hungary’s mid-term (10 year) government bonds. The CDS has reached pre-crisis levels.

 

CDS of 10-year Hungarian government bonds

 

In principle the big credit rating agencies rate the government bonds using such criteria as above. In reality they all rate the Hungarian government bonds in the “junk” category now and they all rated Hungary’s government bonds as “investment grade” in 2009… when the postcommunist MSZPSZDSZ coalition was busy ruining our economy… in the “orthodox way”, that is following orders coupled to the huge, 25 billion Euro loan they took out from the EU and IMF .

Yup, Hungary’s bonds were of “investment grade” when the CDS pricing was record high in 2009 and they became “junk” in 2011-2012 when the “unorthodox policies”, which seem to deliver big results by now, were implemented.

The downgrade of Hungary’s ratings reflects further deterioration in the country’s fiscal and external financing environment and growth outlook, caused in part by further unorthodox economic policies, which are undermining investor confidence and complicating the agreement of a new IMF/EU deal

Fitch wrote then.  Two years later Hungary’s GDP growth is one of the highest in Europe.

And what does The Economist  write about Hungary?  Well, only the usual libnazi bullsh*t  about Hungary’s role in the Holocaust and some more politically motivated drivel.   Yes, just check it out yourself with a search for the past month.  That’s about all those Economists have to say.

 

 

25 years ago

I’ve taken part on quite a few political rallies in my life and at least one of these will surely be in future history textbooks. That’s the reburial of Imre Nagy, the  Communist Prime Minister executed by his comrades after  the ’56 revolution and, of other martyrs, on the 16th of June, 1989.  We’ve just had the 25th anniversary of this major Hungarian political event.

I must be somewhere in this picture

I still remember the feeling of somehow being part of history in the middle of a more than 100,000 strong crowd on Heroes’ Square.   I remember the long queue of speakers who didn’t really make much of an impression. And I remember that finally a young unshaven lad came and he delivered a speech everybody remembers. He demanded that the occupying Soviet troops should leave Hungary. I remember the astonishment in the crowd, the disbelief that somebody dared to say that then. I remember it crossed my mind that his microphone would be switched off immediately and he would be arrested by undercover policemen on the spot.

MSZMP, the state party of the Communist dictatorship shed the letter M (for “munkás”, that is “worker”) a few months after this event and it became MSZP (Hungarian Socialist Party). They were already busy at converting their political power into media and economic power. Then they returned into government in 1994.  That young stubbly lad who delivered that speech beat them first in 1998 against the odds and he became prime minister first in 1998.  Viktor Orbán did a pretty good job: Hungary had a five percent GDP growth in 2000 and Hungary’s already big public debt was decreased to 54 percents of the GDP.   Unfortunately the postcommies, that is MSZP and their ‘left-liberal’ sidekick SZDSZ, won the 2002 elections with the slogan “more money to people!”.  They did so indeed … by taking out foreign loans again. And, of course, their own people got the real money.  Soon these postcommies completely ruined the Hungarian economy but they still managed to win the 2006 elections by “lying day and night“, with the active help of the European Commision.  The West preferred the ex-Communists, who served the Soviet Union and switched to serving the Western interests, to those troublesome Hungarian nationalists, populists, anti-Semites, what-have-you.   Then Orbán won the elections again in 2010, Hungary’s debt ratio was already 80+ percents at this time,  and Hungary was overtaken in GDP per capita by many countries (Slovakia, Poland, Estonia, etc.) we were much ahead of ten years earlier.  Hungarians gave Orbán a huge political mandate so that he should put things right … like how the economy performed at the turn of the millennium when he was prime minister. Well, it seems his government is delivering  results … but it’s a very long way to get back to that relative position Hungary’s economy enjoyed  in the region then.

Orbán delivering his famous speech in 1989 which burst him into Hungarian politics

 

MSZP started fragmenting after their crushing defeat in 2010 and one of these splinters is ex-Socialist prime minister Gordon Bajnai‘s party called ‘Együtt 2014’.   Hungary has a Soviet-built nuclear power station in Paks, which supplies 40% of all electricity,  and two of these blocks will have to be decommissioned in 2025,  two new nuclear power station blocks will have to be built by then.  The postcommies wanted to award the building contract to the USA or to France.  It was no coincidence that  Socialist prime minister Péter Medgyessy was awarded the French Legion of Honour for his activities… and the French nuclear company Areva caused a serious nuclear  accident in 2003. The problem  had to solved by the Russian Rosatom.  Orbán’s government decided in 2013 that Russia should build Hungary’s two new power station blocks because they’ve got the technological advantage here and Russia gave us a long term, low interest rate loan with a high percentage of Hungarian economic participation.   For comparison, just check out what the French company Areva has been doing in Finland…

And now comes the punchline: the successors of the Communist state party, those faithful servants of the Soviet occupiers, who had the reburied ones executed in the first place,   managed to say, on the 25th anniversary of the historic reburial of their victims, to the very man who first demanded the withdrawal of the Soviet troops that

Orbán sold Hungary’s independence out to Russia and he called in the ones whose driving away Imre Nagy and other martyrs gave their life for.

This is so unthinkably absurd…  If  somebody from Finland  reads this then  let me ask  them: Did the Finnish Communist party, or some successor party,  say that the Finnish government stained the memory of those Finnish heroes who fought against the Soviets in the Winter War when the Finnish government granted  Rosatom to build a nuclear power station in Finland?

 

 

 

Two nations against EU orthodoxy

The European Union has embraced an economic orthodoxy defined by tight budgets, anti-inflation central banking and limited government fiddling in the economy.

But that orthodoxy is facing an uncomfortable fact: Two nations that have been challenging it in recent years—Hungary and the U.K.—now boast two of the 28-nation bloc’s best-performing economies.

Hungary and the U.K., neither of which are in the euro zone, are among several governments fighting back against what they see as unwarranted intrusion into their political life by unelected officials at the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm

Economic recovery in Hungary, in the UK and the EU

writes the Wall Street Journal.

RTL Klub war plan with moralizing on freedom of press

The freedom of press is a morally higher consideration than the questions of viewing rates and economic issues…

said  Péter Kolosi, a top leader of the commercial TV channel RTL Klub ,  in an interview  why  RTL Klub attacked Lőrinc Mészáros,  the mayor of Felcsút*, so hard in their Wednesday night news programme.  RTL Klub is owned  by the German Bertelsmann conglomerate. (You know that company which  was the biggest single producer of Nazi propaganda during WWII)

So here goes a real miracle: a commercial TV channel which puts freedom of press  first and its profits second!  Or at least they are going to do so from now on because one wouldn’t have thought this has been their priority list so far,  judging from  their programming which consists of reality shows deeply humiliating and exploiting their “stars”,  trash soap operas, tabloid news  only, etc.  Luckily they are going to mean it now.  And  all this miraculous change  for the better required only that they  pay a bit of tax…

Have you made a war plan (against the government) at RTL Klub?” , the reporter asked the commercial TV manager later

Certainly” was the answer.

* Felcsút is the village where Prime Minister Orbán grew up and where he’s got a house and where he established the Ferenc Puskás Football Academy.  The Hungarian Parliament passed a new law  on Tuesday which is going to make RTL Klub pay a lot of advertisement  tax.

Oh, the European Commission has announced already today that they are examining the content of the ad tax act  passed on Tuesday.   They are so damn quick… in such a case.

Hungarian deputy PM instructs EU commissioner about legal priorities

Here is an enjoyable quip from 2012, Brussels:

Deputy Prime Minister Tibor Navracsics: We, in the Hungarian Parliament take our job very seriously and I don’t feel the need to repeat ourselves but if you like, Madam Commissioner, I can repeat it for you: The Hungarian government wants to engage in cooperation. The Hungarian government has every interest in its legislation constitution being along with the Community acquis.  Let me repeat something which I said to you on the phone or by email on a number of occasions: we think that it’s obvious that, in line with the agreement, we will take into account all the advice of the Council of Europe here but we legislate.

EU Commissioner and vice-president of the European Commission Neelie Kroes: I’m asking you not “taking into account”. I’m asking you accepting and implementing any concrete recommendation of the Council of Europe.

Deputy Prime Minister Tibor Navracsics:  Provided these proposals do not run counter to the Hungarian constitutional and legislative acquis, yes.

(Laughter in the room)

EU Commissioner Neelie Kroes:  That is different from what you were telling me in my office.

Deputy Prime Minister Tibor Navracsics:  I beg your pardon, madam. No, madam.  It’s not different. It’s exactly the same. I’m a Member of Parliament   (of Hungary) and I swore allegiance to the  Constitution of Hungary. I’m not saying the Council of Europe wants something which runs counter to our constitution but  quite simply the Council of Europe cannot impose anything that runs counter to our constitution. Full stop. Thank you.

 

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Economic recovery IS on the way

Quite a few economic indicator figures  have been released this morning.

 

The European Commission has published their economic forecast.  They predict Hungary’s GDP would grow by 2.3% (up from their estimate 2.1% in February), the budget deficit would stay below the Maastricht-criteria three percent limit and Hungary’s yearly inflation rate  would be only 1 percent.

Hungary’s KSH (Hungarian Central Statistical Office) has published data about  foreign trade  and the number new properties built.

  • Exports increased by 7.1%, imports grew by 5.7%  in the first two months of  2014 (year-on-year). The balance of trade surplus was 321 million EURs more and it grew to 1.242 billion EURs. Vow!
  • 51% more properties were built in Hungary in the first three months of 2014 than a year earlier!

Besides the Association of Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory Management (Halpim) has announced that Hungary’s seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)  climbed to 54.6 points in April from 53.7 points in March, indicating further growth.  (50-plus points means growth.)

By the way, last week  Hungary’s National Bank announced that they will  convert their two-week bill facility into a deposit instrument with the same maturity from August.  The facility, the basis of the country’s benchmark interest rate, will no longer be accepted as collateral by the bank and foreign investors will be barred from it.  This is a  very significant measure  indeed to  encourage a further shift towards financing Hungary from domestic, Forint-based sources instead of foreign currency based sources and to reduce the country’s external vulnerability.  As a reminder, Japan’s GDP-to-public debt ration is 220+% and that’s possible only because Japan owes their debt to its own citizens and companies, not to foreign ones.

 

Update on the 6th of May:     KSH has announced retail sales have increased by 8.3% year-on-year in March, after 6.7% y-on-y in February.

 

 

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Brussels supports VAT fraud

Yesterday the European Commission rejected Hungary’s request yet again to introduce reverse VAT in the sugar trade. This is the second time the EC has rejected such a request by Hungary.  There exists a legal EU framework  called  “Quick Reaction Mechanism” which would allow  member states to introduce emergency measures when they are faced with a serious case of sudden and massive VAT fraud.

Among others, the left-liberal newsportal Index.hu also drew attention to a massive VAT fraud in Hungary which has been going on with the participation of Slovak companies. Statistics show that at least ten billion Forints of VAT are cheated this way each year.

Slovakian sugar which is known to be affected in the massive fraud

Hungary’s government introduced the practice of obliging the buyer, that is not the seller, of goods to pay VAT for grain in 2012, a retail sector where one could also see massive tax evasion.  Data from the National Tax and Customs Authority shows that the change has sharply reduced this kind of tax fraud.

Most of the profit from the sugar VAT tax fraud is pocketed by multinational supermarket chains like Tesco or Lidl.  This sounds like a pretty good explanation to me for  Brussels’ decision.

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European values

“more than 100 people [have] already died for these values in Europe, in Ukraine [wanting] to follow the values of Europe.”

“”I think we have debt, a duty of solidarity with that country, and we will work to have them as close as possible to us,” Barroso said. “We have decided also, immediately to sign — because it was requested by the prime minister of Ukraine [Arseniy Yatsenyuk] — sign the political chapters of the Association Agreement. Which means that Ukraine will seal its association with the European Union.”

said  European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

And who requested the shooting of more than 100 people in defence of those European values?  A recently leaked phone call may give the answer to this crucial question:

Estonian Foreign Minister  Urmas Paet: “All the evidence shows that people who were killed by snipers from both sides, policemen and people from the streets, that they were the same snipers killing people from both sides. … Some photos that showed it is the same handwriting, the same type of bullets, and it is really disturbing that now the new coalition they don’t want to investigate what exactly happened. So there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers, it was not Yanukovych, but it was somebody from the new coalition.”

EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Catherine Ashton: “I think we do want to investigate. I mean, I didn’t pick that up, that’s interesting. Gosh.”

Paet: “It already discreditates (sic) this new coalition.”

And Barroso’s announcement, that is the European Union offering such support to the new Ukrainian government without first clarifying who shot 100+ people, bring discredit up to the European Union.

He also said the only goal of EU is “peace and stability”.   Okay because Ukraine is crumbling and tumbling.   However Hungary should stay out of this financial support unless the Ukrainians commit themselves to giving autonomy for the ethnic Hungarians living in Kárpátalja.  And let’s see an independent investigation into these “European values”:  whose payroll the killers were on?

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