Political power is poison. More political power is more poison. It’s a little wonder that Fidesz and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are not terminally ill yet.
July, 2016: Most likely election results according to all political polls
If the elections were held in Hungary this Sunday then Fidesz would repeat, or actually improve, its 2014 result when they achieved a supermajority (that is two thirds of the seats) as they did in 2010.
One may daydream about a grassroot political force, about healthy competition in Hungary’s political life, but now there are simply no signs in Hungary for an electable alternative to Fidesz. This is bad for Fidesz, this is bad for the country but it’s a lot, lot better than the prospect of a “left-liberal”, that is MSZP-DK-PM-LMP-Együtt government. Or of a Jobbik government.
Posted by Leto مؤدّب on 16/08/2016
the Budapest elite looks down on the countryside and patronises the centre-right as ignorant hicks. This does not go down well.
This approach, which has deep roots in the Hungarian past, is strongly universalist (quondam internationalist) and will not or cannot understand how the great majority in Hungary accepts its Hungarian identity and objects to its being disrespected. Consequently, the left-liberal elite not only has to confront a shrinking voter base, but actually appears to revel in it and to insist on the absolute correctness of what it says by constant reference to “the West”. This “West” however is an imaginary construct (to misuse Benedict Anderson
’s language) that serves only to legitimise the left-liberal elite’s claim to power, the power that is to set the agenda and pass moral judgement. It’s an odd kind of opposition that is constantly running abroad for its support base, is increasingly cut off from the social and cultural realities of its own society, lives in an epistemological bubble and betrays its purported intellectual heritage by refusing to engage in argument of any kind. Consequently, its cultural capital
is shrinking, a haemorrhage that does not seem to perturb it in the slightest.
for reasons of their own, the international media have run a quite unbelievably vicious campaign against Hungary. Plausibly backed by a sophisticated public relations operation that plays to the journalists’ own predispositions, a thoroughly negative narrative of Hungary has been constructed and the domestic media use this to reinforce their own belief system. The left liberal elite then sees itself justified in its thinking. It’s a wonderful circular system, that has only one drawback: it doesn’t win votes.
I highly recommend reading Mr. Schöpflin’s whole article because it does explain a lot of things in Hungary’s political life, including the positions of Fidesz, Jobbik and LMP as well.
Fidesz won in each and every county
Fidesz won in all but in 10 constituences
Posted by Leto مؤدّب on 12/08/2014
Jobbik increased their support significantly in the last six months but especially in the very finish of the campaign. Having acquired almost as many votes as the five-party “left liberal” alliance, they can be considered a major Hungarian party now .
Update (thanks to commenter “szebbjovot”): The map below clearly proves this.
The distribution of second places in Hungary’s electoral constituencies
All this began after Jobbik started repositioning themselves about half a year ago, giving up their often openly racist rhetoric, and they started to create an image of a “youthful, cool party”. No doubt their campaign has been great. They didn’t enter into any mudslinging even when that meant losing some tactical edge for them.
If this direction would persist then I think they’ll be able to influence Fidesz–KDNP much more than so far, pushing them on the nationalist agenda, and this consolidation trend may even end up in cooperation with Fidesz. Time will tell.
Posted by Leto مؤدّب on 07/04/2014