A week after Hungary’s election

All votes have been counted and these are the (non-final) official election results :

Fidesz-KDNP 2 824 206 votes 134 seats
Jobbik 1 092 669 votes 26 seats
Hungarian Socialist Party  682 602 20 seats
LMP (leftist greens) 404 425 8 seats
DK (ex-PM Gyurcsány’s extremist left-liberals) 308 068 9 seats
John O’Sullivan, the president of the Budapest-base conservative-classical liberal Danube Institute and a director of the Washington think-tank, 21st Century Initiatives,  analysed very well  why Fidesz-KDNP could achieve what hardly anybody had expected: a third landslide victory, that is yet another super-majority.
  1.  the economic success of Orbán’s government
  2.  the voters’ agreement with Orban’s opposition to mass migration
  3. their admiration for Orbán’s personal leadership qualities
  4. a badly divided opposition
 I highly recommend that you should read his article Hungary Embraces National Conservatism  in full.
So what happened since last Sunday?  Well, with the exception of loony ex-Socialist PM  Ferenc Gyurcsány who drove Hungary’s economy into the ground in 2008, every opposition party leader has resigned.
Then there was a rather big demonstration in Budapest yesterday evening.   Protesting the results of a high turnout, free parliamentary election, Jobbik’s activists walked hand-in-hand with rainbow-coloured mental cases, George Soros’ sympathizers, with all those who used to refer to Jobbik as “Nazi” in every sentence they said about them, with those left-liberals who never fail to call themselves “democrats” .  The organizers promised more demonstrations demanding a “fair election system” and new elections. So there will be at least yet another one next week.  Incidentally, there had  been serious worries that the Antifa thugs, who set Hamburg on fire last summer, would turn up at this rally and the Hungarian police and secret services took all sort of measures to protect the country.
The global media (BBC, The Washington Post, etc. , practically all the usual suspects!) were very excited, of course, and they devoted a lot of space to yesterday’s anti-Orbán rally.  Certainly there wasn’t so much global media attention on the  pro-Orbán rally before the elections which was actually much bigger.

 

George Soros, Senator Palpatine (Darth Sidious, the Emperor) of our times, is going to have talks with top EU officials  in Brussels on Monday, the globalist media is going to keep trying to de-legitimize the fourth Orbán government and there will be a couple of more demonstrations against the will of the Hungarian people as well.  All in all, Hungary  won a very important battle on the 8th of April but the war is far from being over.
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Of Jobbik, the illegal migrants and refugees

These days we may witness quite peculiar developments in Hungarian domestic politics… which do have international relevance.  One may definitely spot a universal pattern for the left-liberal attitude in general and their so-called “values” in the following story!

As some of my readers may know, Jobbik is a (former?) far-right party which surfaced out of nowhere in Hungary in about 2008. They appeared on the political scene by their winning three European parliamentary seats in 2009 and then they made it into the Hungarian Parliament in 2010 as a rather significant opposition force. Their main political agenda appeared to be creating and riding anti-Gypsy and anti-Jewish sentiments arising from Hungary’s de-facto economic bankruptcy  in 2008.   The international mainstream media were very keen indeed to illustrate all their reports from Hungary with such pictures of “Nazi Jobbik rallies”:

jobbik

A 2014 picture of Jobbik supporters from an MSM article (Reuters)

The so-called “progressive forces”, that is the remnants of the PC-liberal regime which ran amok in Hungary between 2002 and 2010, never failed to accuse Fidesz and PM Orbán of collusion with “Nazi Jobbik” either in those times.

As in 2010, PM Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP  had a landslide victory again in 2014.   The climax of the  illegal migration crisis , which put Hungary in international limelight, occurred in the autumn of 2015.  This was the time when Orbán’s government eventually built a border fence in order to protect Hungary, and Europe, from the so-called “refugees”, that is hordes of Middle Eastern and African illegal migrants whose influx was actively supported by the “NGOs” of George Soros, by Angela Merkel’s Germany and by the EU itself, stormed Hungary.   Then Jobbik demanded “tougher measures” against them and the “progressive ones”, that is the postcommunists and PC-liberals, were blowing the Refugees Welcome Because Illegal Migration is a Basic Human Right trumpets.  You may know this as the deeply hypocritical and false  “Willkommenskultur” phenomenon.

Then only about a year later,   Jobbik and those progressive ones,  the very same people who used to drool about “Orbán’s collusion with the neo-Nazi Jobbik”,  started to befriend each other spectacularly. This rapid process was called “Jobbik’s people’s party turn”.   Soon PC-liberal “celebrities”, such as Marxist philosopher Ágnes Heller, started advocating “a technical coalition with Jobbik in order to remove Orbán from power”. The international mainstream media quickly followed suit and they took a liking to Jobbik very soon, too.

So ex-“Nazi” Jobbik campaigned against a referendum which the Orbán-government initiated so that Hungary’s Constitution could be changed in order to block the EU’s mandatory migrant quotas. (The ruling parties lost their supermajority in a by-election in 2015 which they won on the 2014 elections as they did in 2010.   A supermajority, that is two thirds of the seats in the Hungarian Parliament, is needed to change the Hungarian Constitution.).  Jobbik didn’t vote for the proposed constitution amendment  and they also tried to blackmail the government parties.  Soon Jobbik even stood up for the so-called “civil organizations”,  Soros-financed  NGO’s supporting and organizing illegal migration into Europe, and his privileged Central European University which is a training facility for PC-liberal Social Justice Warriors!

Vona, leader of the radical Jobbik party attends an interview with Reuters in Budapest

A 2017 picture about Jobbik chairman Gábor Vona in an MSM article (Reuters)

And now comes the punchline of the story.  It made news a few weeks ago that Hungary provided temporary protection to about 1300 people in 2017 who submitted their asylum application at the border fence.  PM Orbán said in a  radio interview last Friday:

That is about people who are in need of protection, who are in need of protection under international law: people who differ from migrants in the sense that, first of all, they knocked on our door. The migrants, you see, left a trail of destruction on our country’s border and they entered the territory of Hungary illegally; and not only did they fail to obey Hungary’s laws, but they declared that they would not obey our laws. The people we are talking about now – these 1,300 people – politely waited at the border, they knocked on our door, they went to the official border crossing-points, and they told us that they needed protection. Most of them, by the way, are women and unaccompanied minors. The Hungarian authorities said that they would examine their applications; and incidentally the legal basis for this is formed by the international asylum conventions, which the Hungarian parliament earlier incorporated into our legal system. We have never accepted EU regulations on migrant quotas, and we shall never adopt them. So here in Hungary nobody can claim any rights based on those regulations. So we’ve assessed these people, we’ve seen that they truly are in need of protection, and we’ve granted them this on a temporary basis. This is an important point, because from the moment that they no longer need protection they must immediately return to where they came from.

So they won’t become Hungarian citizens?

They never will be. In Brussels we are condemned, and organisations operating in Hungary which support immigration condemn us, because we only grant protection which is temporary, and we don’t offer the opportunity of permanent residence. Incidentally the figures on exactly how many such people are present in Hungary are regularly released by the Immigration Office.

Now the left-liberal “progressive ones” in Hungary, in unison  with their newly found ally Jobbik, are talking of  “Orbán backing migration, conspiracy to settle migrants in Hungary”!  Hungarian speakers may want to watch  this  recent  video as a “Hungarian Cathy Newman” was serving as a microphone stand for a Jobbik party spokesman for this very purpose.  You just couldn’t make this up.

 

 

Power is poison

Political power is poison.  More political power is more poison. It’s a little wonder that Fidesz and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are not terminally ill yet.

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July, 2016: Most likely election results according to all political polls

If the elections were held in Hungary this Sunday then Fidesz would repeat, or actually improve, its 2014  result when they achieved a supermajority (that is two thirds of the seats) as they did in 2010.

One may daydream about a grassroot political force, about healthy competition in Hungary’s political life, but now there are simply no signs in Hungary for an electable alternative to Fidesz.  This is bad for Fidesz, this is bad for the country but it’s a lot, lot better than the prospect of a “left-liberal”, that is MSZP-DK-PM-LMP-Együtt government. Or of a Jobbik government.

 

 

Hungary’s left liberal elite and the West

I came across with an excellent writing by George Schöpflin:
the Budapest elite looks down on the countryside and patronises the centre-right as ignorant hicks. This does not go down well.
This approach, which has deep roots in the Hungarian past, is strongly universalist (quondam internationalist) and will not or cannot understand how the great majority in Hungary accepts its Hungarian identity and objects to its being disrespected. Consequently, the left-liberal elite not only has to confront a shrinking voter base, but actually appears to revel in it and to insist on the absolute correctness of what it says by constant reference to “the West”.  This “West” however is an imaginary construct (to misuse Benedict Anderson’s language) that serves only to legitimise the left-liberal elite’s claim to power, the power that is to set the agenda and pass moral judgement. It’s an odd kind of opposition that is constantly running abroad for its support base, is increasingly cut off from the social and cultural realities of its own society, lives in an epistemological bubble and betrays its purported intellectual heritage by refusing to engage in argument of any kind. Consequently, its cultural capital is shrinking, a haemorrhage that does not seem to perturb it in the slightest.
for reasons of their own, the international media have run a quite unbelievably vicious campaign against Hungary. Plausibly backed by a sophisticated public relations operation that plays to the journalists’ own predispositions, a thoroughly negative narrative of Hungary has been constructed and the domestic media use this to reinforce their own belief system. The left liberal elite then sees itself justified in its thinking. It’s a wonderful circular system, that has only one drawback: it doesn’t win votes.
I highly recommend reading Mr. Schöpflin’s whole article because it does explain a lot of things in Hungary’s political life, including the positions of Fidesz, Jobbik and LMP as well.
Fidesz won in each and every county

Fidesz won in each and every county

 

Fidesz won in all but in 10 constituences

Fidesz won in all but in 10 constituences

‘Roma crime’ is the left-lib parlance for Jobbik-phrase ‘Gypsy crime’

Perhaps I don’t need to introduce Ferenc Gyurcsány, the prime minister of the postcommunist-leftlib MSZPSZDSZ coalition between 2004 and 2009.  You know the one who admitted to his comrades-in-sin behind closed doors in 2006 that MSZP-SZDSZ “lied  night and day and did nothing” (with the active help of the European Commission) in order to win the elections. When they did win and Gyurcsány’s secret obscene speech was leaked, huge crows protested for his resignation and new elections.  Instead of that Gyurcsány had the police shoot protestors in the eye, beat many people to half-dead … while those very human pressure groups of some particular rights (Amnesty International, TASZ, Helsinki Committee, etc. ) kept a low profile. Oh, well,  then Hungary was a democracy which Freedom House ranked higher than today’s Hungary when it’s the left-lib protesters who beat up each other and the police only investigates…  Here is the story:

Albert Pásztor, the police chief of Miskolc in 2009,  held a press conference on the 30th of January, 2009.  Miskolc is an industrial city in Northern Hungary, where Gypsies constitute a high proportion of the population, and crime rates are much higher than elsewhere. Pásztor said in the press conference that a particular kind of street mugging is committed by Gypsies only and he added “cohabitation is not possible with our minority citizens. Yes, that’s it.”     Gyurcsány, who was still PM at that time,  rushed to hold a press conference and he theatrically announced he had ordered the police minister to fire Pásztor for his “racist hate speech”.   There was a local demonstration in Miskolc for Pásztor… with the participation  the local (Miskolc)  MSZP organization, that is Gyurcsány’s party then.

Jobbik was rising strongly and steadily in the beginning of 2009 and one of their main slogans was “combatting ‘cigánybűnözés’ (Gypsy-crime).   “No state employee is allowed to speak of ‘cigánybűnözés'”, Gyurcsány roared in February, 2009 on his press conference.   His exact words were: “this is not simply outrageous. This is sickening.”  He was forced to resign two months later and his economic minister Gordon Bajnai was made PM.

Fidesz won their first landslide victory a year later.  Gyurcsány left MSZP soon, after a lot of bickering, and he established his own party called “Democratic Coalition“.  (They are democratic because they call themselves “democrats” in each second sentence they utter and they call the right wing dictatoric, Fascist, anti-Semitic, racist and what-have-you.)  The major political theme of Gyurcsány’s “left-liberal” party is  anti-racism, fighting for LBGT and  Roma rights, etc.
Fidesz made the penal laws stricter after 2010 and they reinforced the police, too.  They also introduced “public work” for the poor and unskilled, that is basically people are made to work for their benefits, but crime is still a problem in a lot of places, including Miskolc.  Yes, poor, unskilled Gypsies, a lot of them living in slums, commit a lot of crime in Miskolc.

Now, after the second landslide victory of Fidesz in the general elections and before the local elections due to be held in October,  MSZP and Gyurcsány’s party nominated the very same ex-policeman for Miskolc’s mayor whom they fired so theatrically in 2009.

Amnesty International, TASZ, Helsinki Committee, etc.  keep a low profile about this move…

Today, five years later, these are Gyurcsány’s words about Pásztor: “I see the whole of the man rather than those particular words of his.”   Moreover the vice president of Gyurcsány’s small extremist “left-lib” party, Mátyás Eörsi was talking about “Roma-crime” (romabűnözés) last week in an interview on the left-liberal TV channel ATV.    This former SZDSZ politician has always been… er, very, very vocal about racism like discrimination against the Roma… Though, to tell the truth, his real speciality is accusing people of anti-Semitism… (he’s  Jewish)

The local organization of ex-MSZP PM Bajnai’s Együtt-PM, another splinter party of MSZP founded after 2010, also supported running Pásztor for Miskolc mayor. However the national leadership did not.  Márton Gulyás, the NGO leader who recently blurted out that George Soros is financing anti-government political demonstrations via the so-called “Norwegian Civil Fund”, is closely related to Együtt-PM.   He turned up at Gyurcsány’s political rally on Saturday (advertised as “The day of resistance” ) and he held a sign protesting Pásztor’s mayor candidacy and the phrase “Roma crime”.   Gyurcsány’s fans promptly destroyed his sign and they also beat him during the speech of Ágnes Kunhalmi, who is .. surprise, surprise… the Budapest leader of MSZP, that is Gyurcsány’s ex-party.  Later Gyurcsány’s democrats threw burning cigarette stubs at Gulyás.

Tonight Gyurcsány’s “Demokratikus Koalíció” made a press release demanding to know if “Gulyás’ provocation occured in his capacity as a civil political activist or if he acted as an employee of Együtt-PM, with the full knowledge of his party leadership”.

A cup of nice coffee for me, please. 🙂

PS: I expect to see this story in the Western media under titles like “Fascist demonstrators attack human rights activist in Hungary” 😀

Goldilocks economy in an Orbán-era?

A Goldilocks economy is

An economy that is not so hot that it causes inflation, and not so cold that it causes a recession. There are no exact markers of a Goldilocks economy, but it is characterized by a low unemployment rate, increasing asset prices (stocks, real estate, etc.), low interest rates, brisk but steady GDP growth and low inflation.

Regulators use fiscal and monetary policy tools to try to create an economy with these conditions. Economic conditions abroad, and regulators’ reactions to them, also influence whether an economy can achieve a Goldilocks state. This state is ideal for investing, because as companies grow, stocks perform well, and in the absence of inflation, bonds will hold their value. If GDP grows too quickly and inflation creeps up too quickly, however, the economy can overheat and a bust can result.

The phrase comes from the fairy tale “The Story of the Three Bears“.  Similarly to the UK, Hungary may enjoy a Goldilocks economy now… and that may mean a Orbán-era ahead… with a lot of postcommie/leflib  whining about “checks and balances” for years to come.  I’m looking forward to that.  🙂

The Central Bank of Hungary has published their latest forecast today.  CBH expects 0.0% inflation for 2014  (as compared to their 1.3 percent forecast in March) and they increased their GDP growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.1% .  The public budget deficit is expected to stay below the 3% Maastricht requirement.   They also predict rising employment, decreasing unemployment and a steady real household income increase.

NBH forecasts

According to the latest poll by Tárki published yesterday,  political support haven’t changed much for any of the parties since the EP elections:  Fidesz-KDNP is backed by 56% of the decided voters (up from 54%), MSZP has 16% (down from 17%), Jobbik stands at 15% (down from 17%).

 

After the EP elections

The EP elections have been held and they changed the political landscape in Europe… and, to a smaller degree, in Hungary, too. So let’s study the results from that large  sample survey  a bit.   The EP election was purely list-based, with a five percent threshold,  the same rules applied as in other EU countries, so the postcommie left-liberals shouldn’t  really whine about unfair election rules, gerrymandering, disproportionality in the election system, what have you.  (Well, they do.)

The voter turnout in Hungary was lower than in 2009 but this is not much of a surprise:  Hungary had general elections in April.  Besides people know it very well in Hungary, too, that Europe’s decision makers are elected in the national elections.  The Eurocrats in Brussels should get this message at last!  The turnout was still almost 30 percents and that’s quite high compared to 13%, the voter turnout Slovakia, our northern neighbour produced…

First and foremost, let’s note that Fidesz won another landslide victory and the poll result I quoted  was about right for Fidesz.   Fidesz has increased their support to 51.5% in the EP elections from 46% in the general elections and Fidesz was the only Hungarian party which got a higher share of votes than on the 6th of April.  What does this entail for Fidesz and Hungary?  It’s certainly a strong reinforcement for PM Orbán in his European policies.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said already before the election,  in a last minute interview on Saturday, that  “he will not support Jean-Claude Juncker‘s bid to become president of the European Commission even if the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) wins the European elections”.   Orbán became the first EPP leader to publicly break ranks on the issue but it has turned out quickly  he has the support of British Prime Minister David Cameron.  Orbán and Cameron share anti-federalist views concerning the future of EU and Junckers clearly doesn’t.     I think this event signals that Orbán  is becoming a significant player in the European political arena. BTW, let’s also remember what Statfor CEO George Friedman wrote about  Orbán’s balancing act.

 

The distribution of the cast votes

The far-right party Jobbik came second. (Let’s remember that Marine Le Pen’s National Front won in France!)  However they actually lost voter support:  they got only 15% after  20% of the votes in the national elections.

No doubt the biggest impact of the election is on the postcommunist side.  MSZP came only third, they gained only two seats and they actually came in the fourth place in Budapest (which is the most a leftist/left-liberal place in Hungary)!  DK, ex-Socialist PM Gyurcsány’s extremist left-lib party, and Együtt-PM, ex-Socialist PM Bajnai’s left-lib party almost got as many as votes as MSZP.  Gyurcsány is making a comeback on the left-lib dunghill…  This really seems to be a death blow to MSZP, chairman Mesterházy (and then the whole leadership!) unexpectedly resigned a few days after the EP election.

Bajnai was invited to the Bilderberg-table in Denmark yesterday but the awkward political jester,  Gyurcsány seems to be swooping down on dying MSZP.  We’re going to see much blood on the left-lib political stage in the upcoming months.  The local elections will be held in October.

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The International Republican Institute on the Hungarian elections

See the original article here:

The ruling, center-right Fidesz party under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán handily won the regularly scheduled elections to the National Assembly, taking 44.87 percent of the national list vote (and 37 seats) and winning 96 of 106 single-member district races outright.  With this result Fidesz won a second, consecutive two-thirds majority in the Assembly.  Turnout was 61.24 percent, somewhat lower than it was four years ago.  The socialist-liberal alliance led by the Hungarian Socialist Party came in second with 25.57 percent of the national list vote.  Jobbik, the radical, far-right party took 20.22 percent and the green-liberal Politics Can Be Different party just passed the five-percent threshold with 5.34 percent.

These elections were the first conducted under a new and controversial election system.  The subject of broad international criticism (which Fidesz argues has been politically driven by the Left), the new system cut the number of seats in parliament from 386 to 199, with 106 of these elected in single-mandate districts and the rest by proportional representation.  One ongoing criticism of the new districts is that they were gerrymandered to the benefit of the ruling party, but by comparison to any number of U.S. congressional districts, they are clean, compact, balanced and proportional.

Of these 106 single-mandate districts, Fidesz won 96 and the socialist-liberal coalition 10 – actually a worse performance for Fidesz than in 2010 under the old systems, when it won 173 of 176 districts.   Another criticism of the elections was that, although private media is competitive and has voices from left and right, a “significant part” of Hungary is served only by state media, and thus allegedly only received the “government line.”

IRI conducted a staff assessment in and around Budapest for the elections, with resident country directors from Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Turkey observing 24 polling stations.  Overall, IRI staff assessors found the environment on Election Day to be quiet, well-run and efficient.  Because IRI had no long-term observation mission, the Institute is not able assess the pre-election environment.

In his victory speech, Prime Minister Orbán said that the voters had said no to two things: hatred and leaving the European Union.  The voters, he said, reaffirmed that Hungary’s place is in Europe, but only when it has a strong national government.  “We stand, all of us, on the threshold of a new and wonderful age,” he said.  “I call on the citizens of Hungary:  Let us step into this new and wonderful age together.  Only together were we able to get this far.  And only together will we be able to make Hungary great and successful again.”

Stress reduction kit for postcommies and left-liberals

 

 

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New Fidesz supermajority is official

After a lot of re-counting and legal appeals by the postcommunist “Government Changers” (Kormányváltók) coalition, Hungary’s High Court (Kúria) has announced their sentence today: the distribution of MPs seats wouldn’t change.   Another Fidesz supermajority after four years in government sounds like a real political miracle.

I do worry about Fidesz though. As the saying goes, “Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely”.  All in all, I think Fidesz got away with relatively little corruption  in the last four years, given the power the Hungarian voters gave to Fidesz and PM Orbán in 2010.  I hope very much I could write the same in 2018…

 

The seats in the new Parliament

 

The “Government Changers”, in close cooperation with the global neoliberal media,  have been, and are, trying hard to question the legitimacy of the elections results. Well, that’s one could expect from the  Reding-strategy after all.   One of their major “argument” is that Fidesz got a 67% majority with “only” 45% of the votes and that’s sooooo unjust and it’s soooo dictatorial. They don’t have any answer to the fact, other than ignoring, that Fidesz would have won 95% of the seats under the election rules of the United Kingdom.   They keep whining about “gerrymandering by Fidesz”, “the lack of freedom of speech”, “an electoral system which makes Fidesz impossible to defeat”, etc.   Apparently MSZP chairman Attila Mesterházy didn’t think last December that the very same election rules would prevent them from obtaining a supermajority.    EU propaganda, or US mouthpieces like the Wall Street Journal,  focuses  on Jobbik, which got more votes than in 2010 but a smaller percentage of seats!,  instead of that why Fidesz had another landslide victory or  why their postcommie/left-liberal cronies suffered such a huge defeat again from the Hungarian voters…

Instead of trying to learn from the lessons the Hungarian electorate gave them, the postcommies  have been  playing the “anti-Semitic card” for months and they have been trying very hard, with a lot of help from the aforementioned global media,  to stir up more and more hysteria about a planned monument which will be dedicated to all victims of Hungary’s military occupation by Nazi Germany in 1944.   Maybe I’ll write a separate post about this.  In the meantime I highly recommend reading this (very instructive!) article how a descendant of Holocaust victims,  the leader of the leftist-green party LMP,  was be labelled  and attacked when he had opined in the same way as I wrote in the previous sentence.

And these “progressive, democratic forces who represent European values”, together with their foreign overlords in the EU and in the USA,  are apparently unwilling to face up reality: Hungary has had enough of “Kormányváltók”, that is the wreckage coalition of MSZP, its splinters like the small parties established by former Socialist prime ministers and the leftovers of the now defunct extremist “liberal” party SZDSZ.

 

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About the strong result of Jobbik

Jobbik  increased their support significantly in the last six months but especially in the very finish  of the campaign.   Having acquired almost as many votes as the five-party “left liberal” alliance, they can be considered a major Hungarian party now .

Update (thanks to commenter “szebbjovot”): The map below clearly proves this.

The distribution of second places in Hungary’s electoral constituencies

All this began after Jobbik started repositioning themselves about half a year ago, giving up their often openly racist rhetoric, and they started to create an image of a “youthful, cool party”.  No doubt their campaign has been great.  They didn’t enter into any mudslinging even when that meant losing some tactical edge for them.

Decided voters

If this direction would persist then I think they’ll be able to influence FideszKDNP much more than so far, pushing them on the nationalist agenda, and this consolidation trend may even end up in cooperation with Fidesz.   Time will tell.

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