Political power is poison. More political power is more poison. It’s a little wonder that Fidesz and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are not terminally ill yet.
July, 2016: Most likely election results according to all political polls
If the elections were held in Hungary this Sunday then Fidesz would repeat, or actually improve, its 2014 result when they achieved a supermajority (that is two thirds of the seats) as they did in 2010.
One may daydream about a grassroot political force, about healthy competition in Hungary’s political life, but now there are simply no signs in Hungary for an electable alternative to Fidesz. This is bad for Fidesz, this is bad for the country but it’s a lot, lot better than the prospect of a “left-liberal”, that is MSZP-DK-PM-LMP-Együtt government. Or of a Jobbik government.
The EP elections have been held and they changed the political landscape in Europe… and, to a smaller degree, in Hungary, too. So let’s study the results from that large sample survey a bit. The EP election was purely list-based, with a five percent threshold, the same rules applied as in other EU countries, so the postcommie left-liberals shouldn’t really whine about unfair election rules, gerrymandering, disproportionality in the election system, what have you. (Well, they do.)
The voter turnout in Hungary was lower than in 2009 but this is not much of a surprise: Hungary had general elections in April. Besides people know it very well in Hungary, too, that Europe’s decision makers are elected in the national elections. The Eurocrats in Brussels should get this message at last! The turnout was still almost 30 percents and that’s quite high compared to 13%, the voter turnout Slovakia, our northern neighbour produced…
First and foremost, let’s note that Fidesz won another landslide victory and the poll result I quoted was about right for Fidesz. Fidesz has increased their support to 51.5% in the EP elections from 46% in the general elections and Fidesz was the only Hungarian party which got a higher share of votes than on the 6th of April. What does this entail for Fidesz and Hungary? It’s certainly a strong reinforcement for PM Orbán in his European policies.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbánsaid already before the election, in a last minute interview on Saturday, that “he will not support Jean-Claude Juncker‘s bid to become president of the European Commission even if the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) wins the European elections”. Orbán became the first EPP leader to publicly break ranks on the issue but it has turned out quickly he has the support of British Prime Minister David Cameron. Orbán and Cameron share anti-federalist views concerning the future of EU and Junckers clearly doesn’t. I think this event signals that Orbán is becoming a significant player in the European political arena. BTW, let’s also remember what Statfor CEO George Friedman wrote about Orbán’s balancing act.
The distribution of the cast votes
The far-right party Jobbik came second. (Let’s remember that Marine Le Pen’s National Front won in France!) However they actually lost voter support: they got only 15% after 20% of the votes in the national elections.
No doubt the biggest impact of the election is on the postcommunist side. MSZP came only third, they gained only two seats and they actually came in the fourth place in Budapest (which is the most a leftist/left-liberal place in Hungary)! DK, ex-Socialist PM Gyurcsány’s extremist left-lib party, and Együtt-PM, ex-Socialist PM Bajnai’s left-lib party almost got as many as votes as MSZP. Gyurcsány is making a comeback on the left-lib dunghill… This really seems to be a death blow to MSZP, chairman Mesterházy (and then the whole leadership!) unexpectedly resigned a few days after the EP election.
Bajnai was invited to the Bilderberg-table in Denmark yesterday but the awkward political jester, Gyurcsány seems to be swooping down on dying MSZP. We’re going to see much blood on the left-lib political stage in the upcoming months. The local elections will be held in October.
Let me make a little poll among my readers what you think is going to happen now after their second huge defeat of the so-called “Left” in the elections.
When you vote, please keep in mind what MSZP party manager Árpád Velez said to their activists in the campaign (on a leaked tape recording): „Making Orbán resign is not a goal, that’s a means. We want to govern so that we could pay our guys at last…”
It’s a huge, huge centre-of-right victory! After four years in government, Fidesz–KDNP seems to have been able to retain even the supermajority! This still hangs in the balance though because of two constituencies where the votes are very close to each other.
The postcommunist left-liberal “Change of Government” coalition (MSZP, Együtt, PM, DK, Liberals) came in second and they managed to win in ten individual constituencies. Apart from a single election district in the city of Szeged, all of these are on the Pest side of Budapest.
Radical right-wing Jobbik came in third and relatively close to the postcommunist alliance. Undoubtedly Jobbik forms a third political centre now.
Green-liberal LMP managed to sneak into the Parliament with a 5.2 percent result.
MP seats in the new Parliament based on 93.53 percents of the votes
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, seemingly quite moved, thanked everybody who voted and especially those voters who supported his party. He said that they worked hard for this result and God will decide if they are worthy of it. He emphasized that today Hungarians are the most united nation in Europe. Referring to the postcommunist opposition, he said that Hungary rejected hatred and, hinting at Jobbik’s rhetoric, he said Hungary also rejected leaving the European Union.
MSZP chairman Mesterházy refused to congratulate PM Orbán to his victory because “the electoral system was flawed and strongly biased” and he was talking about “Fidesz-dictatorship”, an “illegitimate regime”, etc. Let’s note that he said they’d get a supermajority, under the very same rules and these circumstances, a few months ago…
Ex MSZP PM Ferenc Gyurcsány, the leader of the extremist left-liberal party “Democratic Coalition“, said “Hungarian voters were plain wrong” and he pledged they’d get into power sooner than 2018. He offered no congratulation to PM Orbán, “of course”.
Ex-MSZP PM Gordon Bajnai , the leader of Együtt-PM, was also whining about the electoral system. He also refused to congratulate PM Orbán.
Jobbik chairman Gábor Vona congratulated PM Orbán and pledged they’d win the next elections.
Incidentally, let me address a quite common political Internet “meme”, that is “polls are worthless because they ask only 1000 people in a country of 10 million people. You’d get something else if you asked the rest of the 9,999,000… “
Imagine you’ve got a big bag filled with a mix of wheat, rye, rice and corn. How would tell how many grains of each kind are there in the big bag ? Would you count each and every grain in that big, big bag meticulously? Well, you do that when you cannot afford erring at all. You do general elections. However if you need to know the figures much quicker and at a much, much lower cost then you look up the volume of the bag (that corresponds to using census data for the size of the whole population), you shake the bag well and then you randomly select some small part of the bag (you select a survey panel) and then you count the grains only in this sample. The distribution of the grains in the sample will mach the distribution of the grains in the whole big bag because your sample should look like exactly as the rest of the bag content . Say, you found there are 481 wheat grains among 1000 grains you randomly selected. Then you may bet with a high stake that there would be about 4,810,000 wheat grains in the big bag which was counted (well, a few years ago) to contain 10 million grains altogether.
In fact basic statistics says you can be almost certain, with an odds 1:19 (that is a 5 percent probability) of being wrong, that the margin of error will be only about 2.5% in our case as described above. If you do count all the grains in the bag then you’ll almost surely find no more than 4,930,250 wheat grains and no less than 4,689,750 wheat grains… provided you did shake the bag well indeed and you didn’t cheat, or you didn’t make some mistake, when you counted the grains, of course. So it’s worth comparing the results which wheat eaters, rye eaters, rice eaters, corn eaters or meat eaters (with special regard to black cats!!) arrive at when they take a handful of grains from the big bag.
Six, that is six women are among the 106 Fidesz MP candidates. Half of the list should consist of women if we wanted to maintain the current shameful proportion, 9%, of women. Besides Fidesz would hardly run any women on their party lists either. This is how we are going to go below our own negative record in Europe. It’s an unforgivable shame (on them).
fumed Katalin Ertsey, a leftist independent opposition MP who left the small left-wing opposition party LMP (“Politics Can Be Different”) after LMP declined to join ex-Socialist PM Bajnai’s Együtt 2014. Her two female comrades, already in Bajnai’s opposition party, also shed a lot of tears how few women would be in the next parliament because of the sexist ruling party Fidesz.
Using their logic, I think the list should also reflect the age distribution and the income distribution of the whole population. But certainly only after the distribution for sexual orientation, ethnicity and religious affiliations would be taken into account. Then certainly the list must also represent the hair and eye colour, plus the height and weight distributions of the electorate, of course. Adjusting for the IQ score distribution, or political skills, is a low priority. Maybe, for the sake of political correctness, the latter thing shouldn’t be done at all.