Of Jobbik, the illegal migrants and refugees

These days we may witness quite peculiar developments in Hungarian domestic politics… which do have international relevance.  One may definitely spot a universal pattern for the left-liberal attitude in general and their so-called “values” in the following story!

As some of my readers may know, Jobbik is a (former?) far-right party which surfaced out of nowhere in Hungary in about 2008. They appeared on the political scene by their winning three European parliamentary seats in 2009 and then they made it into the Hungarian Parliament in 2010 as a rather significant opposition force. Their main political agenda appeared to be creating and riding anti-Gypsy and anti-Jewish sentiments arising from Hungary’s de-facto economic bankruptcy  in 2008.   The international mainstream media were very keen indeed to illustrate all their reports from Hungary with such pictures of “Nazi Jobbik rallies”:

jobbik

A 2014 picture of Jobbik supporters from an MSM article (Reuters)

The so-called “progressive forces”, that is the remnants of the PC-liberal regime which ran amok in Hungary between 2002 and 2010, never failed to accuse Fidesz and PM Orbán of collusion with “Nazi Jobbik” either in those times.

As in 2010, PM Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP  had a landslide victory again in 2014.   The climax of the  illegal migration crisis , which put Hungary in international limelight, occurred in the autumn of 2015.  This was the time when Orbán’s government eventually built a border fence in order to protect Hungary, and Europe, from the so-called “refugees”, that is hordes of Middle Eastern and African illegal migrants whose influx was actively supported by the “NGOs” of George Soros, by Angela Merkel’s Germany and by the EU itself, stormed Hungary.   Then Jobbik demanded “tougher measures” against them and the “progressive ones”, that is the postcommunists and PC-liberals, were blowing the Refugees Welcome Because Illegal Migration is a Basic Human Right trumpets.  You may know this as the deeply hypocritical and false  “Willkommenskultur” phenomenon.

Then only about a year later,   Jobbik and those progressive ones,  the very same people who used to drool about “Orbán’s collusion with the neo-Nazi Jobbik”,  started to befriend each other spectacularly. This rapid process was called “Jobbik’s people’s party turn”.   Soon PC-liberal “celebrities”, such as Marxist philosopher Ágnes Heller, started advocating “a technical coalition with Jobbik in order to remove Orbán from power”. The international mainstream media quickly followed suit and they took a liking to Jobbik very soon, too.

So ex-“Nazi” Jobbik campaigned against a referendum which the Orbán-government initiated so that Hungary’s Constitution could be changed in order to block the EU’s mandatory migrant quotas. (The ruling parties lost their supermajority in a by-election in 2015 which they won on the 2014 elections as they did in 2010.   A supermajority, that is two thirds of the seats in the Hungarian Parliament, is needed to change the Hungarian Constitution.).  Jobbik didn’t vote for the proposed constitution amendment  and they also tried to blackmail the government parties.  Soon Jobbik even stood up for the so-called “civil organizations”,  Soros-financed  NGO’s supporting and organizing illegal migration into Europe, and his privileged Central European University which is a training facility for PC-liberal Social Justice Warriors!

Vona, leader of the radical Jobbik party attends an interview with Reuters in Budapest

A 2017 picture about Jobbik chairman Gábor Vona in an MSM article (Reuters)

And now comes the punchline of the story.  It made news a few weeks ago that Hungary provided temporary protection to about 1300 people in 2017 who submitted their asylum application at the border fence.  PM Orbán said in a  radio interview last Friday:

That is about people who are in need of protection, who are in need of protection under international law: people who differ from migrants in the sense that, first of all, they knocked on our door. The migrants, you see, left a trail of destruction on our country’s border and they entered the territory of Hungary illegally; and not only did they fail to obey Hungary’s laws, but they declared that they would not obey our laws. The people we are talking about now – these 1,300 people – politely waited at the border, they knocked on our door, they went to the official border crossing-points, and they told us that they needed protection. Most of them, by the way, are women and unaccompanied minors. The Hungarian authorities said that they would examine their applications; and incidentally the legal basis for this is formed by the international asylum conventions, which the Hungarian parliament earlier incorporated into our legal system. We have never accepted EU regulations on migrant quotas, and we shall never adopt them. So here in Hungary nobody can claim any rights based on those regulations. So we’ve assessed these people, we’ve seen that they truly are in need of protection, and we’ve granted them this on a temporary basis. This is an important point, because from the moment that they no longer need protection they must immediately return to where they came from.

So they won’t become Hungarian citizens?

They never will be. In Brussels we are condemned, and organisations operating in Hungary which support immigration condemn us, because we only grant protection which is temporary, and we don’t offer the opportunity of permanent residence. Incidentally the figures on exactly how many such people are present in Hungary are regularly released by the Immigration Office.

Now the left-liberal “progressive ones” in Hungary, in unison  with their newly found ally Jobbik, are talking of  “Orbán backing migration, conspiracy to settle migrants in Hungary”!  Hungarian speakers may want to watch  this  recent  video as a “Hungarian Cathy Newman” was serving as a microphone stand for a Jobbik party spokesman for this very purpose.  You just couldn’t make this up.

 

 

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Power is poison

Political power is poison.  More political power is more poison. It’s a little wonder that Fidesz and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are not terminally ill yet.

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July, 2016: Most likely election results according to all political polls

If the elections were held in Hungary this Sunday then Fidesz would repeat, or actually improve, its 2014  result when they achieved a supermajority (that is two thirds of the seats) as they did in 2010.

One may daydream about a grassroot political force, about healthy competition in Hungary’s political life, but now there are simply no signs in Hungary for an electable alternative to Fidesz.  This is bad for Fidesz, this is bad for the country but it’s a lot, lot better than the prospect of a “left-liberal”, that is MSZP-DK-PM-LMP-Együtt government. Or of a Jobbik government.

 

 

After the EP elections

The EP elections have been held and they changed the political landscape in Europe… and, to a smaller degree, in Hungary, too. So let’s study the results from that large  sample survey  a bit.   The EP election was purely list-based, with a five percent threshold,  the same rules applied as in other EU countries, so the postcommie left-liberals shouldn’t  really whine about unfair election rules, gerrymandering, disproportionality in the election system, what have you.  (Well, they do.)

The voter turnout in Hungary was lower than in 2009 but this is not much of a surprise:  Hungary had general elections in April.  Besides people know it very well in Hungary, too, that Europe’s decision makers are elected in the national elections.  The Eurocrats in Brussels should get this message at last!  The turnout was still almost 30 percents and that’s quite high compared to 13%, the voter turnout Slovakia, our northern neighbour produced…

First and foremost, let’s note that Fidesz won another landslide victory and the poll result I quoted  was about right for Fidesz.   Fidesz has increased their support to 51.5% in the EP elections from 46% in the general elections and Fidesz was the only Hungarian party which got a higher share of votes than on the 6th of April.  What does this entail for Fidesz and Hungary?  It’s certainly a strong reinforcement for PM Orbán in his European policies.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said already before the election,  in a last minute interview on Saturday, that  “he will not support Jean-Claude Juncker‘s bid to become president of the European Commission even if the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) wins the European elections”.   Orbán became the first EPP leader to publicly break ranks on the issue but it has turned out quickly  he has the support of British Prime Minister David Cameron.  Orbán and Cameron share anti-federalist views concerning the future of EU and Junckers clearly doesn’t.     I think this event signals that Orbán  is becoming a significant player in the European political arena. BTW, let’s also remember what Statfor CEO George Friedman wrote about  Orbán’s balancing act.

 

The distribution of the cast votes

The far-right party Jobbik came second. (Let’s remember that Marine Le Pen’s National Front won in France!)  However they actually lost voter support:  they got only 15% after  20% of the votes in the national elections.

No doubt the biggest impact of the election is on the postcommunist side.  MSZP came only third, they gained only two seats and they actually came in the fourth place in Budapest (which is the most a leftist/left-liberal place in Hungary)!  DK, ex-Socialist PM Gyurcsány’s extremist left-lib party, and Együtt-PM, ex-Socialist PM Bajnai’s left-lib party almost got as many as votes as MSZP.  Gyurcsány is making a comeback on the left-lib dunghill…  This really seems to be a death blow to MSZP, chairman Mesterházy (and then the whole leadership!) unexpectedly resigned a few days after the EP election.

Bajnai was invited to the Bilderberg-table in Denmark yesterday but the awkward political jester,  Gyurcsány seems to be swooping down on dying MSZP.  We’re going to see much blood on the left-lib political stage in the upcoming months.  The local elections will be held in October.

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Popular support

Popular support

Though the European Elections don’t really matter much but the distribution of votes are still indicative of the  support  Hungarian voters give to the various political parties.

According to this poll, Fidesz seems to have increased support compared to the April 6 elections… and that was already biiiig…  🙂   We’re going to have the large sample survey this Sunday.

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Respect to Hungarians!

“We’re sending the message to Brussels: Respect to Hungarians!”

 

is the Fidesz campaign slogan for the European Parliament elections to be held on the 25th of May.

 

Hungary in an allegorical picture

We’ll get there.  🙂

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The future of the Left in Hungary

Let me make a little poll among my readers what you think is going to happen now after their second huge defeat of the so-called “Left” in the elections.

When you vote, please keep in mind what MSZP party manager Árpád Velez said to their activists in the campaign (on a leaked tape recording): „Making Orbán resign is not a goal, that’s a means. We want to govern so that we could pay our guys at last…”

 

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Who said what about today’s landslide Fidesz victory

The results of the elections are in a nutshell:

  1. It’s a huge, huge centre-of-right  victory! After four years in government,  FideszKDNP  seems to have been able to retain even the supermajority!  This still hangs in the balance though because of two constituencies where the votes are very close to each other.
  2. The postcommunist left-liberal “Change of Government” coalition (MSZP, Együtt, PM, DK,  Liberals) came in second and they managed to win in ten individual constituencies. Apart from a single election district in the city of Szeged, all of these are on the Pest side of Budapest.
  3. Radical right-wing Jobbik came in third and relatively close to the postcommunist alliance. Undoubtedly Jobbik forms a third political centre now.
  4. Green-liberal LMP managed to sneak into the Parliament with a 5.2 percent result.

 

MP seats in the new Parliament based on 93.53 percents of the votes

 

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, seemingly quite moved,  thanked everybody who voted and especially those voters who supported his party.  He said that they worked hard for this result and God  will decide if they are worthy of it.  He emphasized that today Hungarians are the most united nation in Europe.  Referring to the postcommunist opposition, he said that Hungary rejected hatred and, hinting at Jobbik’s rhetoric, he said Hungary also rejected leaving the European Union.

MSZP chairman Mesterházy refused to congratulate PM Orbán to his victory because “the electoral system was flawed and strongly biased” and he was talking about “Fidesz-dictatorship”, an “illegitimate regime”, etc.  Let’s note that he said they’d get a supermajority, under the very same rules and these circumstances, a few months ago…

Ex MSZP PM Ferenc Gyurcsány, the leader of the extremist left-liberal party “Democratic Coalition“, said “Hungarian voters were plain wrong” and he pledged they’d get into power sooner than 2018.  He offered no congratulation to PM Orbán, “of course”.

Ex-MSZP PM Gordon Bajnai , the leader of Együtt-PM, was also whining about the electoral system.  He also refused to  congratulate PM Orbán.

Jobbik chairman Gábor Vona congratulated PM Orbán and pledged they’d win the next elections.

LMP chairman András Schiffer congratulated both PM Orbán  and  MSZP chairman Attila Mesterházy and he offered him co-operation in opposition.

 

I say those losers who were unable to offer the basic courtesy of congratulating the re-elected prime minister are very obviously (pathetic)  losers in the other sense of the word, too.

 

 

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Last bets, please!

Ready, steady, …

The last results before today’s elections

The results will be announced tonight!

 

What would I like to see most ?  MSZP and its splinters to be buried for good.

 

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Election video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TloHni-C_ow&autoplay=1&rel=0

Csak a Fidesz!/Only Fidesz!

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Poll results

Hungary is going to have general elections in exactly one month, on the 6th of April.    Let’s see what they say:

Medián

Green: decided voters

Nézőpont

“Aktív szavazók” = decided voters

Szonda Ipsos

Decided voters

Tárki

Decided voters

Századvég

Decided voters

This does look promising for Fidesz. 🙂

Incidentally, let me address a quite  common political Internet “meme”, that is “polls are worthless because they ask only 1000 people in a country of 10 million people. You’d get something else if you asked the rest of the 9,999,000… “

Imagine you’ve got a big bag filled with a mix of wheat, rye, rice and corn.  How would tell how many grains of each kind are there in the big bag ?   Would you count each and every grain in that big, big bag meticulously?  Well, you do that when you cannot afford erring at all.  You do general elections.   However if you need to know the figures much quicker and at a much, much lower cost then  you look up the volume of the bag (that corresponds to using census data for the size of the whole  population),  you shake the bag well and then you randomly select some small part of the bag (you select a survey panel) and then you count the grains only in this sample.  The distribution of the grains in the sample will mach the distribution of the grains in the whole big bag because your sample should look like exactly as the rest of the bag content .  Say, you found there are 481 wheat grains among 1000 grains you randomly selected.  Then you may bet with a high stake that there would be about 4,810,000 wheat grains in the big bag which was counted (well, a few years ago) to contain 10 million grains altogether.

In fact basic statistics says you can be almost certain, with an odds 1:19  (that is a 5 percent probability) of being wrong, that the margin of error will be only about 2.5%  in our case as described above. If you do count all the grains in the bag then you’ll almost surely  find no more than 4,930,250 wheat grains  and no less than 4,689,750 wheat grains… provided you did shake the bag  well indeed and you didn’t cheat, or you didn’t make some mistake, when you counted the grains, of course.  So it’s worth comparing the results which wheat eaters, rye eaters,  rice eaters, corn eaters or meat eaters (with special regard to  black cats!!)  arrive at when  they take a handful of grains from the big bag.

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